[ RadSafe ] Once More into the heart of the disinformationdragon

[Jeff Terry]

Mike, 

There is no question about this. 

Many cancer cases will be detected that would never have occurred.
The flip side is that people will live longer than they would have without 
the constant medical monitoring as thing like heart disease, etc will be 
detected earlier. 

Jeff


On May 22, 2012, at 11:34 AM, Brennan, Mike (DOH) wrote:

> Even if one assume LNT as a fair model for inducing cancer, it is almost
> a certainty that the cancer death rate among Japanese workers and
> civilians exposed do to Fukushima will be well below expected.  This is
> because this population is going to be monitored like no group ever
> before, and cancers will be caught earlier, and I suspect funding for
> treatment will be more available.  On the other hand, the cancer rate
> will likely be higher than expected, because some (quite possibly high)
> percentage of the cancers detected might otherwise gone unnoticed for
> long enough that the person died of some unrelated cause.  
> 
> So, regardless of which side someone is on, there will be plenty of room
> to argue your position, simply by ignoring that as with so many things,
> the act of observing changes the outcome.
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
> [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Jeff Terry
> Sent: Monday, May 21, 2012 8:23 PM
> To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Once More into the heart of the
> disinformationdragon
> 
> Hi Roger, 
> 
> That is truly a difficult question to answer as it depends on pre and
> post meldown. 
> 
> The total verified deaths are 5
> (http://asiancorrespondent.com/53036/the-fukushima-death-toll/).
> 
> However, 3 were due to the earthquake and tsunami and occurred prior to
> the meltdown.
> 
> Now, it is predicted that there may be 900 cancer deaths in the
> population of 1 million around the plant. 
> 
> http://orlandocamargo.com/radiation-issuesone-year-and-beyond-david-j-b
> 
> On the order of 50 members of the public died during the evacuation
> according to Lancet: 
> http://www.lancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)60384-5/f
> ulltext
> 
> Jeff
> 
> Jeff Terry
> Assoc. Professor of Physics
> Life Science Bldg Rm 166
> Illinois Institute of Technology
> 3101 S. Dearborn St. 
> Chicago IL 60616
> 630-252-9708
> terryj at iit.edu
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On May 21, 2012, at 9:50 PM, Roger Helbig wrote:
> 
>> I wanted to verify the number of workers who have died at Fukushima
> since I
>> got asked a very off the wall question about nuclear waste by one of
> the
>> female members of a Facebook group "Support the Work of Leuren Moret"
> and I
>> found this page, which has Gundersen and others spouting off
> misinformation
>> for fun and profit
>> 
>> 
> http://enenews.com/news-agency-after-working-in-affected-areas-four-work
> ers-have-died-victims-of-leukemia-or-heart-attack-nhk-tv
>> 
>> The right side of the page with the links to most viewed is pretty
> chilling
>> since it means that this false information has a fairly large
> audience.
>> 
>> Roger Helbig
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