[ RadSafe ] Once More into the heart of the disinformationdragon

[Brennan, Mike (DOH)]

Even if one assume LNT as a fair model for inducing cancer, it is almost
a certainty that the cancer death rate among Japanese workers and
civilians exposed do to Fukushima will be well below expected.  This is
because this population is going to be monitored like no group ever
before, and cancers will be caught earlier, and I suspect funding for
treatment will be more available.  On the other hand, the cancer rate
will likely be higher than expected, because some (quite possibly high)
percentage of the cancers detected might otherwise gone unnoticed for
long enough that the person died of some unrelated cause.  

So, regardless of which side someone is on, there will be plenty of room
to argue your position, simply by ignoring that as with so many things,
the act of observing changes the outcome.

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
[mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Jeff Terry
Sent: Monday, May 21, 2012 8:23 PM
To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Once More into the heart of the
disinformationdragon

Hi Roger, 

That is truly a difficult question to answer as it depends on pre and
post meldown. 

The total verified deaths are 5
(http://asiancorrespondent.com/53036/the-fukushima-death-toll/).

However, 3 were due to the earthquake and tsunami and occurred prior to
the meltdown.

Now, it is predicted that there may be 900 cancer deaths in the
population of 1 million around the plant. 

http://orlandocamargo.com/radiation-issuesone-year-and-beyond-david-j-b

On the order of 50 members of the public died during the evacuation
according to Lancet: 
http://www.lancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)60384-5/f
ulltext

Jeff

Jeff Terry
Assoc. Professor of Physics
Life Science Bldg Rm 166
Illinois Institute of Technology
3101 S. Dearborn St. 
Chicago IL 60616
630-252-9708
terryj at iit.edu





On May 21, 2012, at 9:50 PM, Roger Helbig wrote:

> I wanted to verify the number of workers who have died at Fukushima
since I
> got asked a very off the wall question about nuclear waste by one of
the
> female members of a Facebook group "Support the Work of Leuren Moret"
and I
> found this page, which has Gundersen and others spouting off
misinformation
> for fun and profit
> 
>
http://enenews.com/news-agency-after-working-in-affected-areas-four-work
ers-have-died-victims-of-leukemia-or-heart-attack-nhk-tv
> 
> The right side of the page with the links to most viewed is pretty
chilling
> since it means that this false information has a fairly large
audience.
> 
> Roger Helbig
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