[ RadSafe ] RadSafe Digest, Vol 1736, Issue 2

Fri Dec 5 13:05:20 CST 2014

Hi,

     The long term climate stuff is clearly real.   Don't compare it with 
the short term phenomena we are struggling with now.   It all  must fit 
together to compute what we are seeing.

     I won't disparage climate experts at Goddard or  elsewhere.  I'm 
thinking of emailing Chopo Ma (NASA GSFC VLBI Group) so he  can sit down with 
Ms.Parkinson (NASA Goddard) and others, so they can hear  what the wobbles etc. 
are about.

     Joe Preisig

In a message dated 12/5/2014 1:33:56 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,  
tony.harrison at state.co.us writes:

Sorry  Joe, but a number of actual climate experts disagree with you:

"In  July, Mr. Stockman spent a couple of hours at NASA’s Goddard Space
Flight  Center listening to presentations about earth science and climate
change.  The subject of ice ages came up. Mr. Stockman asked, “How can your
models  predict the climate when no one can tell me what causes the  ice
ages?”

I responded that, actually, the science community  understood very well what
takes the earth into and out of ice ages. A  Serbian mathematician, Milutin
Milankovitch, worked out the theory during  the early years of the 20th
century. He calculated by hand that variations  in the earth’s tilt and the
shape of its orbit around the sun start and end  ice ages. I said that you
could think of ice ages as resulting from wobbles  in the earth’s tilt and
orbit.

The time scales involved are on the  order of tens of thousands to hundreds
of thousands of years. I explained  that this science has been well tested
against the fossil record and is  broadly accepted. I added that we don’t
normally include these factors in  100-year climate projections because the
effects are too tiny to be  important on such a short  time-scale."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/wobbling-on-climate-change.html

And:
"Things,  however, are beginning to change — and change faster than  anyone
anticipated, according to a new study  published
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061940/abstract?campaign=w
olacceptedarticle>
in
the  Geophysical Research Letters. Despite its formidable lineage, the
Amundsen  Sea is widely recognized as the weakest link in the West
Antarctic’s  splintering chain of ice sheets. But only now is it becoming
clear just how  fast change is coming.

There, the melting rate tripled in the past  decade. Since 1992, the
researchers found, the loss rate accelerated by 6.1  gigatons per year.
Between 2003 and 2009, that rate nearly tripled to 16.3  gigatons per year.
That surge in the melt rate,  according
<http://news.uci.edu/press-releases/west-antarctic-melt-rate-has-tripled-uc-
irvine-nasa/>
to
scientists  at the University of California at Irvine, means the region, in
the past 21  years, shed a Mount Everest-sized amount of ice every two 
years.

“The  mass loss of these glaciers is increasing at an amazing rate,”
Isabella  Velicogna, the paper’s author, said in a  statement
<http://news.uci.edu/press-releases/west-antarctic-melt-rate-has-tripled-uc-
irvine-nasa/>.
With  sea level steadily rising in locations like Miami, connecting the dots
back  to glacial melt has become a vital endeavor, she added. “It’s 
critical
that  we maintain this [observing] network to continue monitoring the
changes,”  she said. “Because the changes are proceeding very  fast.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/12/03/this-west-antar
ctic-region-sheds-a-mount-everest-sized-amount-of-ice-every-two-years-study-
says/

Oh  well, back to radiation safety work.

*Tony Harrison,  MSPH*

*Chemistry Supervisor*

P 303-692-3046  |  F  303-691-4069

8100 Lowry Blvd.  Denver, CO  80230

tony.harrison at state.co.us  |  colorado.gov/cdphe

Message: 5
> Date: Fri, 5 Dec 2014 12:18:15  -0500
> From: JPreisig at aol.com
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] 10  warmest years on record
> To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
>  Message-ID: <6eb0e.6744d74b.41b342d7 at aol.com>
> Content-Type:  text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
>
> Radsafe,
>
>   Our ability to measure global temperatures is quite good   right now.
> Wonder if the temperature increases can be plotted versus  the  global 
human
> population.  Is there a close  correlation???  Plot both  parameters 
versus
> time.  No  wonder it is getting warmer, plus possible oil,  coal, natural
>  gas
> burning.
>
>     Still, in 1976 it was  global cooling.  1998 is a  significant global
> warming  date.  By 2020 it will be global cooling  again.  This is  
somewhat
> due
> to the sum and difference frequencies of  the  Earth wobbles (Annual 
Wobble,
> Chandler Wobble 1, Chandler  Wobble 2).  I've  explained all this in the
> Radsafe  archives.  The relevant wobble period is  something like 44  
years
> (1976
> to 2020).
>
>     Right  now California and other parts of the USA are  entering a 
drought
>  period similar to the decade-long Dust Bowl drought (around   1932-1934).
> Can't compute the severity of the event right now.   Team  USA could.  The
> drought should last about 12  years.  Conserve water,  farm 
conservatively,
> grow
>  fewer cattle??? and try to get through it.
>
>      For the next 4 weeks it is earthquake season (Winter  Solstice)  
again.
> Possibly 1 or 2 large magnitude earthquakes.    There's a major
> typhoon/cyclone in the Phillipines right now.   This might  trigger some
> earthquake
>  there???
>
>     Joe  Preisig
>
>
>
>
>
>
> In a message  dated 12/5/2014 9:24:42 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
>  Peter.Sandgren at ct.gov writes:
>
> No  agenda here - just  relaying what has been  reported:
>  http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/10-warmest-years-globally
>  It?s official: 2013 is tied with 2003 as the fourth warmest year for
>  Planet Earth since modern record-keeping began more than 130 years  ago.
> The  mean
> global temperature rose 1.12?F above the  20th century average. That means
> the 10 warmest years on record have  all happened since 1998, with 2010
> still
>  on top as the  warmest of all. The only year in the entire 20th century
> that   was warmer than 2013, and the only one remaining in the top 10, was
>  1998.
> This  also marks the 37th straight year where the global  temperature was
> above the  long term average.
>
>  (Google News) US, British data show 2014 could be  hottest year on   
record
>
>  
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/11/27/us-climatechange-heat-idUKKCN0JB1EM
>  20141127
>
> P.  SANDGREN
> CT DESPP - DEMHS
>  RAD EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
> 25 SIGOURNEY  ST., HARTFORD,   CT
>
>
>  ________________________________________
>
> On 11/24/2014   12:49 PM, JPreisig at aol.com wrote:
> > Radsafe,
> >
>  >   See google news --- antarctic sea  ice    .
> >
> >         Not only is   there more Antarctic Ice,  but it is also now
> thicker,
>  > as  determined by underwater robotic vessels.
> >
>  >       So much for global warming????
>  >
> >     Joe   Preisig
>
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