[ RadSafe ] Auer on Global Warming

Mon Jan 27 12:34:27 CST 2014

Pat, while we may agree on AGW, we may also agree to disagree with others. To restrict submissions that are in disagreement with any position based in whole or even partly on self interest is exceedingly unseemly IMHO and smacks of censorship. If it is the substance of the posts with which you disagree, please provide the citations and references to refute their claims.  If the subjects are of such a settled matter, this should prove simple.

Best Regards,
David

-----Original Message-----
From: McCloskey, Pat <Pat.McCloskey at orau.org>
To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List <radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu>
Sent: Mon, Jan 27, 2014 11:26 am
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Auer on Global Warming

I don't understand why this site continues to receive submissions from those 
that do not agree that there is a human component to climate change. I would 
think there is a Blog somewhere that supports the interest of the coal-fired 
electricity suppliers that would be more interested in that support. For those 
that make their living in the nuclear industry and believe that "Rad is Safe", 
it appears that you argue for more coal plants, and the end of the nuclear 
renaissance.

Pat

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] 
On Behalf Of KARAM, PHILIP
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2014 10:32 AM
To: 'The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List'
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Auer on Global Warming

Otto - your posting made me curious so I did a little on-line searching and 
found a paper that might be of interest. Unfortunately you have to pay to 
download the whole thing, but here's the abstract and citation information. Note 
that this was published in a peer-reviewed journal.

Andy
-------------------------------

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts Energy & 
Environment Volume 18, Number 7 - 8 / December 2007 Kesten C. Green, J. Scott 
Armstrong

Abstract
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Working Group One, a 
panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the 
United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The 
Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures 
over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature 
increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these 
forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is "no". To 
provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would 
need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature 
changes, and (3) the effects of feasible alternative policies. Proper forecasts 
of all three are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC WG1 Report was 
regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average 
temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others 

 involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no 
references in the 1056-page Report to the primary sources of information on 
forecasting methods despite the fact these are conveniently available in books, 
articles, and websites. We audited the forecasting processes described in 
Chapter 8 of the IPCC's WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they complied 
with forecasting principles. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 
out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that 
were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by 
themselves, critical. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of 
scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists 
transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on 
forecasting has shown that experts' predictions are not useful in situations 
involving uncertainly and complexity. We have been unable to identify any sc

 ientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer 
have no more credence than saying that it will get colder.

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] 
On Behalf Of Otto G. Raabe
Sent: Sunday, January 26, 2014 8:44 PM
To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Auer on Global Warming

August H. "Augie" Auer Jr (10 June 1940 - 10 June
2007) was distinguished scientist and
Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Wyoming for 22 years.
After retirement became the Chief Meteorologist for the Meteorological t Service 
of New Zealand.

As a boy growing up in St. Louis, Missouri, Auer was reportedly fascinated by 
weather.
He studied meteorology at Colorado State University before becoming a Professor 
at the University of Wyoming.
A land use typing method to classify land as urban or rural is used by the 
United States Environmental Protection Agency.

After retirement, Auer moved to New Zealand and became the Chief Meteorologist 
for the Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited from 1990 to 1998.
He also presented the weather forecast on TV News for several years, often 
preferring to use colloquialisms instead of technical jargon.
Auer was frequently quoted in the New Zealand press regarding weather and 
climate issues.

In a May 2007 interview with The Timaru Herald newspaper, Auer stated that a 
combination of misinterpreted and misguided science, media hype, and political 
spin had created the current global warming hysteria and it was time to put a 
stop to it stating, "It is time to attack the myth of global warming."

According to Auer: " Water vapor is responsible for 95 per cent of the 
greenhouse effect, an effect which is vital to keep the world warm.
if we didn't have the greenhouse effect the planet would be at minus 18 degrees 
Centigrade but because we do have the greenhouse effect it is plus 15 degrees 
Centigrade, all the time.
The other greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen dioxide, and 
various others including CFCs, contributed only five per cent of the effect, 
carbon dioxide being by far the greatest contributor at 3.6 per cent.
However, carbon dioxide from man's activities is only 3.2 per cent of that 3.6 
per cent, so it is only 0.12 per cent of the greenhouse gases in total.
Human related methane, nitrogen dioxide, and CFC's etc. make similarly minuscule 
contributions to the effect: 0.06, 0.047, and 0.046 per cent, respectively.
It would be like trying to increase the temperature of bath tub full of water 
using one drop from an eye dropper."

**********************************************
Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP
Center for Health & the Environment
University of California
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
E-Mail: ograabe at ucdavis.edu
Phone: (530) 752-7754   FAX: (530) 758-6140
***********************************************
_______________________________________________
You are currently subscribed to the RadSafe mailing list

Before posting a message to RadSafe be sure to have read and understood the 
RadSafe rules. These can be found at: http://health.phys.iit.edu/radsaferules.html

For information on how to subscribe or unsubscribe and other settings visit: 
http://health.phys.iit.edu _______________________________________________
You are currently subscribed to the RadSafe mailing list

Before posting a message to RadSafe be sure to have read and understood the 
RadSafe rules. These can be found at: http://health.phys.iit.edu/radsaferules.html

For information on how to subscribe or unsubscribe and other settings visit: 
http://health.phys.iit.edu
_______________________________________________
You are currently subscribed to the RadSafe mailing list

Before posting a message to RadSafe be sure to have read and understood the 
RadSafe rules. These can be found at: http://health.phys.iit.edu/radsaferules.html

For information on how to subscribe or unsubscribe and other settings visit: 
http://health.phys.iit.edu