[ RadSafe ] Global Warming

[JPreisig at aol.com]

Radsafe,
 
     Global warming means funding for graduate  students, business, grants 
and so on.  Many atmospheric types are jumping  on the bandwagon.  Once the 
global warming question is settled, all this  funding goes away.  Global 
Circulation Models are sensitive to input  parameters and information.  See 
book by Peixoto and Oort, Pedlosky  etc.
 
     Joe Preisig
 
 
 
 
In a message dated 5/26/2014 2:02:49 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
clayton.bradt at health.ny.gov writes:


I  have spent time with the publications of the IPCC, Susan. I simply don't 
find  them that compelling. I do find that the scientific chapters tend to 
be a lot  more tentative in their assertions than the summaries for policy 
makers.   The fact that the summaries are always published before the 
scientific  chapters makes it pretty clear that there is more going on than the 
honest  communication of the results of scientific research.

Now, computer  models are central (essential) to support the hypothesis of 
the enhanced  greenhouse effect. Without them there are only time series of 
proxy  temperature data which show trends, or not, depending on the choice 
of  endpoints. The proposed physical mechanism causing the warming can only 
be  'tested' on the computer.  In order to believe the computer models   one 
must believe that the physics of the earth-atmosphere-ocean system are  
thoroughly understood and quantitated correctly in the code. One misunderstood  
or missing relationship between input variables could render the programs'  
output meaningless. And the modelers' efforts to adjust their codes to 
produce  results matching the data is fraught with potential bias.

But even if  the computer models' predictions are generally correct (i.e. 
most warming in  colder-drier regions like Siberia, little warming in 
warm-humid regions like  Amazonia), they still only predict one climate parameter: 
temperature.   The models say nothing about precipitation, clouds, pressure, 
winds, etc. Yet  this has not stopped the global warming enthusiast from 
predicting that every  possible calamity known to humanity: drought, floods, 
hurricanes, plagues,  mass extinctions, blah-blah, blah-blah, blah-blah, will 
follow ineluctably  from a warmer climate. Nobody - NOBODY - predicts 
anything good happening  because of climate change, anywhere!  I find that very 
hard to  believe.

Even if we accept that the CO2/warming connection, and I  happen to think 
that it is certainly plausible, it doesn't mean that the case  for a pending 
climate catastrophe hasn't been way over-sold. I think it has,  and I'm not 
amused by that.

Clayton Bradt
Principal  Radiophysicist
NYS Dept. of  Health
clayton.bradt at health.ny.gov<mailto:clayton.bradt at health.ny.gov>
********************************************

Date:  Wed, 21 May 2014 15:39:48 -0400

From: S L Gawarecki  <slgawarecki at gmail.com<mailto:slgawarecki at gmail.com>>

Subject:  Re: [ RadSafe ] OT: Global Warming

To: RadSafe  
<radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu<mailto:radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu>>

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I continue to be amused by the  opinions on climate change by scientists 
who are not climate scientists or  even earth scientists.  To understand the 
SCIENCE behind the conclusions  about global warming, spend some time with 
the publications by the  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at 
http://www.ipcc.ch/ .  The  Summary for Policy Makers of the 2013 report is a good 
place to start at  
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf  .




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