[ RadSafe ] Fwd: [New post] Meticulous research indicates much greater likelihood of another Chernobyl-scale nuclear accident

Brennan, Mike (DOH) Mike.Brennan at DOH.WA.GOV
Wed Apr 22 13:14:33 CDT 2015

I wouldn't believe Christina MacPherson if she said, "Left over birthday cake in the break room".  At very least on rad issues, the truth is not in her.  I am sure that she prefers to quote people who say something that supports her position, but I doubt it worries her much if she has to misquote someone in order to put words in their mouths that support her position.

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Roger Helbig
Sent: Wednesday, April 22, 2015 3:38 AM
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Fwd: [New post] Meticulous research indicates much greater likelihood of another Chernobyl-scale nuclear accident

Is this really meticulous research or are these people anti-nuclear activists first and scientists second?

Roger Helbig

Meticulous research indicates much greater likelihood of another Chernobyl-scale nuclear accident

by Christina MacPherson

Wheatley and co's work suggests that a Chernobyl-scale accident is worryingly likely to occur within the working lifetime of the reactors now being built. And when that happens, a once obscure place will enter the lexicon as a synonym for catastrophe, just like Chernobyl, Windscale and Fukushima.

These risks will have to be carefully weighed against the advantages.
The question for engineers, policy makers and the general public alike is whether that risk is worth taking, given what's at stake.

The Chances of Another Chernobyl Before 2050? 50%, Say Safety Specialists, MIT Technology Review  April 17, 2015  ".....And there's a
50:50 chance of a Three Mile Island-scale disaster in the next 10 years, according to the largest statistical analysis of nuclear accidents ever undertaken........

 What is the likelihood of another Chernobyl in the next few years?

Today, we get an answer thanks to the work of Spencer Wheatley and Didier Sornette at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and Benjamin Sovacool at Aarhus University in Denmark. These guys have compiled the most comprehensive list of nuclear accidents ever created and used it to calculate the likelihood of other accidents in future.

Their worrying conclusion is that the chances are 50:50 that a major nuclear disaster will occur somewhere in the world before 2050. "There is a 50 per cent chance that a Chernobyl event (or larger) occurs in the next 27 years," they conclude.

The nuclear industry has long been criticised for its over-confident attitude to risk. But truly independent analyses are few and far between, partly because much of the data on accidents is compiled by the nuclear industry itself, which is reluctant to share it.

The International Atomic Energy Agency rates accidents using a system called the International Nuclear Event Scale, which is related to the amount of radiation released. However, the Agency does not publish a historical database of these accidents, probably because it has a dual role of both regulating the nuclear industry and promoting it. Read more of this post

Christina MacPherson | April 22, 2015 at 8:22 am | Categories: safety
| URL: http://wp.me/phgse-jiW

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