[ RadSafe ] Fwd: [New post] Meticulous research indicates much greater likelihood of another Chernobyl-scale nuclear accident
Brennan, Mike (DOH)
Mike.Brennan at DOH.WA.GOV
Wed Apr 22 13:14:33 CDT 2015
I wouldn't believe Christina MacPherson if she said, "Left over birthday cake in the break room". At very least on rad issues, the truth is not in her. I am sure that she prefers to quote people who say something that supports her position, but I doubt it worries her much if she has to misquote someone in order to put words in their mouths that support her position.
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Roger Helbig
Sent: Wednesday, April 22, 2015 3:38 AM
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Fwd: [New post] Meticulous research indicates much greater likelihood of another Chernobyl-scale nuclear accident
Is this really meticulous research or are these people anti-nuclear activists first and scientists second?
Meticulous research indicates much greater likelihood of another Chernobyl-scale nuclear accident
by Christina MacPherson
Wheatley and co's work suggests that a Chernobyl-scale accident is worryingly likely to occur within the working lifetime of the reactors now being built. And when that happens, a once obscure place will enter the lexicon as a synonym for catastrophe, just like Chernobyl, Windscale and Fukushima.
These risks will have to be carefully weighed against the advantages.
The question for engineers, policy makers and the general public alike is whether that risk is worth taking, given what's at stake.
The Chances of Another Chernobyl Before 2050? 50%, Say Safety Specialists, MIT Technology Review April 17, 2015 ".....And there's a
50:50 chance of a Three Mile Island-scale disaster in the next 10 years, according to the largest statistical analysis of nuclear accidents ever undertaken........
What is the likelihood of another Chernobyl in the next few years?
Today, we get an answer thanks to the work of Spencer Wheatley and Didier Sornette at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and Benjamin Sovacool at Aarhus University in Denmark. These guys have compiled the most comprehensive list of nuclear accidents ever created and used it to calculate the likelihood of other accidents in future.
Their worrying conclusion is that the chances are 50:50 that a major nuclear disaster will occur somewhere in the world before 2050. "There is a 50 per cent chance that a Chernobyl event (or larger) occurs in the next 27 years," they conclude.
The nuclear industry has long been criticised for its over-confident attitude to risk. But truly independent analyses are few and far between, partly because much of the data on accidents is compiled by the nuclear industry itself, which is reluctant to share it.
The International Atomic Energy Agency rates accidents using a system called the International Nuclear Event Scale, which is related to the amount of radiation released. However, the Agency does not publish a historical database of these accidents, probably because it has a dual role of both regulating the nuclear industry and promoting it. Read more of this post
Christina MacPherson | April 22, 2015 at 8:22 am | Categories: safety
| URL: http://wp.me/phgse-jiW
You are currently subscribed to the RadSafe mailing list
Before posting a message to RadSafe be sure to have read and understood the RadSafe rules. These can be found at: http://health.phys.iit.edu/radsaferules.html
For information on how to subscribe or unsubscribe and other settings visit: http://health.phys.iit.edu
More information about the RadSafe