[ RadSafe ] Fwd: [New post] Meticulous research indicates much greater li...

JPreisig at aol.com JPreisig at aol.com
Wed Apr 22 10:00:27 CDT 2015

     When the coal, oil, natural gas start to run out  in 50 years, people 
will be building new nuclear reactors with a big smile on  their faces.  
Maybe they'll have 40% efficient solar cells on their  home roofs also.
     Joe Preisig
In a message dated 4/22/2015 6:38:17 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
rwhelbig at gmail.com writes:

Is this  really meticulous research or are these people anti-nuclear
activists first  and scientists second?

Roger Helbig

Meticulous research  indicates much greater likelihood of another
Chernobyl-scale nuclear  accident

by Christina MacPherson

Wheatley and co's work suggests  that a Chernobyl-scale accident is
worryingly likely to occur within the  working lifetime of the reactors
now being built. And when that happens, a  once obscure place will
enter the lexicon as a synonym for catastrophe,  just like Chernobyl,
Windscale and Fukushima.

These risks will have  to be carefully weighed against the advantages.
The question for engineers,  policy makers and the general public alike
is whether that risk is worth  taking, given what's at stake.

The Chances of Another Chernobyl Before  2050? 50%, Say Safety
Specialists, MIT Technology Review  April 17,  2015  ".....And there's a
50:50 chance of a Three Mile Island-scale  disaster in the next 10
years, according to the largest statistical  analysis of nuclear
accidents ever undertaken........

What is the  likelihood of another Chernobyl in the next few years?

Today, we get an  answer thanks to the work of Spencer Wheatley and
Didier Sornette at ETH  Zurich in Switzerland and Benjamin Sovacool at
Aarhus University in  Denmark. These guys have compiled the most
comprehensive list of nuclear  accidents ever created and used it to
calculate the likelihood of other  accidents in future.

Their worrying conclusion is that the chances are  50:50 that a major
nuclear disaster will occur somewhere in the world  before 2050. "There
is a 50 per cent chance that a Chernobyl event (or  larger) occurs in
the next 27 years," they conclude.

The nuclear  industry has long been criticised for its over-confident
attitude to risk.  But truly independent analyses are few and far
between, partly because much  of the data on accidents is compiled by
the nuclear industry itself, which  is reluctant to share it.

The International Atomic Energy Agency rates  accidents using a system
called the International Nuclear Event Scale,  which is related to the
amount of radiation released. However, the Agency  does not publish a
historical database of these accidents, probably because  it has a dual
role of both regulating the nuclear industry and promoting  it. Read
more of this post

Christina MacPherson | April 22, 2015 at  8:22 am | Categories: safety
| URL:  http://wp.me/phgse-jiW

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