John Gofman Claims

["Ron L. Kathren" <rkathren@tricity.wsu.edu>]

In the item forwarded to RadSafe by Aaron Oakley, the following is
attributed to Gofman:

 --But his latest research
>into US national mortality statistics between 1940 and 1990 is the largest
>ever conducted. He says it proves death rates from heart disease and cancer
>are highest in areas where more X-rays are performed.
>© Express Newspapers, 1999


This is not at all surprising, and in fact expected.   Those areas
(countries?) with higher usage of medical x-rays are doubtless more affluent
and have better medical care overall; life expectancy is doubtless longer
than in the less fortunate underdeveloped nations, where death occurs at an
earlier age from other causes that are better detected and treated in those
areas in which x-ray usage is greater.   Thus saved from death from other
causes, persons will die from heart disease and cancer.   Gofman's assertion
would thus seem to be a rather thinly disguised use of proportionate
mortality, which can be exemplified by pointing out that if by some magic we
were to eliminate lung cancer in the US, the death rate from other forms of
cancer and heart disease will likely go up since a pretty good statistical
assumption is that one out of one will die (or is it a good assumption ---
most of the people who have ever been born are still alive today!)

Ron Kathren

************************************************************************
The RADSAFE Frequently Asked Questions list, archives and subscription
information can be accessed at http://www.ehs.uiuc.edu/~rad/radsafe.html