Re: John Gofman Claims

["Aaron Oakley" <aoakley@receptor.pharm.uwa.edu.au>]

See my comments below:

> This is not at all surprising, and in fact expected.   Those areas
> (countries?) with higher usage of medical x-rays are doubtless more
affluent
> and have better medical care overall; life expectancy is doubtless longer
> than in the less fortunate underdeveloped nations, where death occurs at
an
> earlier age from other causes that are better detected and treated in
those
> areas in which x-ray usage is greater.   Thus saved from death from other
> causes, persons will die from heart disease and cancer.   Gofman's
assertion
> would thus seem to be a rather thinly disguised use of proportionate
> mortality, which can be exemplified by pointing out that if by some magic
we
> were to eliminate lung cancer in the US, the death rate from other forms
of
> cancer and heart disease will likely go up since a pretty good statistical
> assumption is that one out of one will die (or is it a good assumption ---
> most of the people who have ever been born are still alive today!)

I suspect it is a case of post hoc reasoning, ie, arguing from false causes.
Affluence would appear to be a major issue. Cancer and heart disease are
frequently
degenerative diseases of old age, so one might be inclined to analyse
Gofman's data in terms of longevity versus cancer/heart disease rates etc
 to determine if there are other correlations.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Aaron

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