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Iran and the Bomb



hoover@sip-pmu.slavutich.kiev.ua wrote:
 
Actually I was trying to make two different points with my comment.
Firstly, it the Russians were to sell an RBMK-1000 they might not be doing
the Iranians much of a favor.  Secondly, by selling them an RBMK-1000 they
might be helping the Iranian bomb program.  Depends on how you look at it.
 
Sounds like they already have one!!!
 Tom Lashley
 LashleyT@DTEenergy.com

U.S. Fears Russia Helped Iran Get the Bomb
NewsMax.com
January 18, 2000

The Clinton administration is concerned Iran may now be able to build nuclear weapons and suspects Russia had a hand in helping it.
That's what a major report in the New York Times boils down to.

As usual, the Central Intelligence Agency wasn't commenting. Nor was the National Security Agency, other than to issue this statement:

"We have said all along that we are concerned about Iran's efforts to develop ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. We will continue to work hard to block those efforts."

The Times report in its Tuesday issue set off shock waves in capitals around the world that now must reorder their view of Iran — always difficult to predict.

They must now look upon Iran not only as a radical Islamic state and one of the planet's mightiest oil-producers, but also as possibly armed with an H-bomb.

That change of status would begin a domino effect upon strategic alliances and the balance of power among both nuclear and non-nuclear states.

For the United States, it has grave implications on several fronts that engage its vital national interests, and could intrude among the issues of the 2000 presidential election:

• Will this endanger one of America's critical delivery routes of petroleum, through the Persian Gulf?

The United States went to war nine years ago against Iraq, the next-door neighbor and ancient enemy of Iran, to protect that supply of oil.

• Will this spur Iraq's pursuit of its own nuclear capability, to balance its stand in relation to Iran?

For a decade, the United States has tried, with incomplete success, to monitor and control Iraq's development of weapons of mass destruction.

• Will this bring about even greater destabilization of the Persian Gulf region by increasing hostile acts between Iran and Iraq?

In 1991, the United States stopped short of sending troops all the way up to Baghdad to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein, for fear it would invite Iran to move in militarily on Iraq.

• Will other "rogue states" such as North Korea see Iran with nuclear capability and step up their own efforts in that direction?

The Clinton administration is going to the lengths of antagonizing Russia by planning a continental anti-missile defense shield to protect against a possible nuclear attack from North Korea.

• Will an Iran in possession of nuclear bombs ratchet up the nuclear-arms race between India and Pakistan?

A localized nuclear conflict on the Indian subcontinent could endanger numerous American commercial and military interests in Asia.

• Will Communist China react dangerously to Iran's entry into the "nuclear club"?

The United States has been trying to restrain China's development of nuclear weapons and spread of that technology to other nations.

• Will Russia use its influence with a nuclear Iran to bring further pressure upon the United States, which it regards increasingly as a serious danger to its interests?

The day when the United States and Russia shared nuclear dominance over other nations is gone, and the frightful atomic genie is forever out of the bottle if a nation such as Iran holds a nuclear capability that will enable it to command the same fear and respect as a superpower.

• Will this foreshadow a new kind of nuclear-based alliance arrayed against the United States — Russia and China, in concert with new nuclear nations such as Iran, North Korea and Pakistan?

That is the nightmare scenario that has Washington military and diplomatic strategists so troubled by what may be going on inside Iran.

• What options are open, what are closed to the United States?

How this country responds, or fails to respond, may affect its national security well into the new century.

Here is the gist of the Times report that has raised so many alarms:

• The CIA can no longer rule out the possibility that Iran has acquired nuclear weapons.

• If Iran does have them, it didn't get them by a breakthrough on its own. It had to have had outside help.

• The most likely source for Iran to have acquired nuclear technology is on the international black market, mainly from the former Soviet Union.

• Russia is known to have sold nuclear and missile technology to Iran. Now there is fear it may have expanded that trade to include heavy water and graphite technology from its large stockpiles of nuclear fuel and weapons.

• Because the United States cannot track with certainty how Iran is obtaining that technology, President Clinton is expected to order an urgent National Intelligence Estimate of Iran's nuclear capacity, bringing all U.S. intelligence gathering and assessment to focus on the problem.

• Russia has denied helping Iran develop nuclear weapons, just as Iran has denied having such a program. The CIA no longer accepts their word on that.