Re: The FEAR is Our own worst enemy. (Re)

[William V Lipton <liptonw@dteenergy.com>]

Perhaps, the reason we have such trouble proving a negative is that, as soon as we
"prove" that something can't happen, it does:  TMI, Chernobyl, the myriad DOE
horror stories.  The reason we're held to such a high standard is that we set this
standard, and then fail to deliver.

The opinions expressed are strictly mine.
It's not about dose, it's about trust.

Bill Lipton
liptonw@dteenergy.com

Al Tschaeche wrote:

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> What a wonderful explanation of why one can't prove a negative!  See my
> comments below.
>
> Bob Flood wrote:
>
> > At 01:20 AM 2/15/00 -0600, you wrote:
> > >
> > >> It is impossible to demonstrate something has no risk.
> > >
> > >Because . . .  (?) few (if any) objects or activities have no risk.
> >
> > No, it's because you can't prove a negative. For example, let's have you
> > prove that did not rob a bank yesterday. Identify every bank that you
> > didn't rob, the witnesses that saw you not rob them, and the FBI report
> > identifying all the fingerprints that aren't yours.
> >
> > You really can't prove a negative.
> >
> > And this is the environment in which the nuclear industry is required to
> > operate. The highly visible and vocal opposition demands that the industry
> > be eradicated because it cannot prove that it isn't killing people. The
> > opposition can't prove that it IS killing people, but they don't seem to
> > feel there's any reason why they should - they are very comfortable with
> > the idea that it's the industry's obligation to prove they don't.
>
> And, whenever you have a discussion on this subject, be sure the ground rules
> are established before the main discussion begins.  I was sandbagged one day
> when I was to discuss the hazards of plutonium.  I was under the impression
> that those people on the side of "plutonium is the most dangerous material on
> earth" had to prove their argument.  It turned out that I was expected to
> prove "plutonium is not the most dangerous material on earth."  But no one
> told me that beforehand.  So, of course I lost.  The moderator even told me
> afterward what I was expected to do.  I was incensed, but it was too late
> then.   I learned a good lesson from that mistake.
>
> > How
> > convenient. It's a pity we have a press that can't figure this out. And as
> > long as the press don't get wise to this technique, the opposition will be
> > far more effective at scaring people than we ever will be at undoing this
> > damage.
> >
> > But the question remains, how do we change this?
>
> We use your example every time we hear or see someone try to tell us we must
> prove safety or no risk (absolutely impossible to do).  If anyone else has a
> similar example, please post it.  I will collect them for future use.  The
> only way to change the current thinking is to provide thinking that is better
> and more truthful.  The truth will out as the statement "You can't prove a
> negative" will eventually be understood and accepted (by most thinking people
> - the feelers will have a problem with it, of course) even by the EPA!  It may
> take a while, but, if vigorously pursued, will win in the end.
>
> Al Tschaeche antatnsu@pacbell.net
>
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