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Proof of safety.
Who said that Chernobyl wouldn't happen? Answer: Jane Fonda (literally, I
saw it on TV, twice) and the US left wing in "The Nation" magazine (I read
it). Who is now holding them to a high standard? Ted Turner at CNN?
Who were that nuclear power advocates in the US who said that an RMBK
accident was impossible?
TMI was within the predicted range of accidents, although not for the
specific reasons that caused it. What the DOE was doing was done as part of
military operations, which had no "proof" of safety and were shrouded in
secrecy with no estimate of negative consequences. Although there were
"horror stories" there is still no actual evidence of negative consequences
other than beryllium illness and the Thresher, which may have had too much
nuclear safety as a contributer. When I was taking a course on nuclear
weapons safety in 1966, the class was told that there would be an accidental
nuclear weapons explosion every 20 years in the U. S. military.
More people have died on the ground from crashing airplanes than have been
killed from "something that happened" with nuclear power. Teddy Kennedy's
car has killed more people than my nuclear power plant.
Don Kosloff mailto:dkosloff@ncweb.com
2910 Main St., Perry, OH
----- Original Message -----
From: William V Lipton <liptonw@dteenergy.com>
To: Multiple recipients of list <radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu>
Sent: Tuesday, February 15, 2000 1:25 PM
Subject: Re: The FEAR is Our own worst enemy. (Re)
> Perhaps, the reason we have such trouble proving a negative is that, as
soon as we
> "prove" that something can't happen, it does: TMI, Chernobyl, the myriad
DOE
> horror stories. The reason we're held to such a high standard is that we
set this
> standard, and then fail to deliver.
>
> The opinions expressed are strictly mine.
> It's not about dose, it's about trust.
>
> Bill Lipton
> liptonw@dteenergy.com
>
> Al Tschaeche wrote:
>
> > This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
> > --------------F5E29A2DE6C4764B3CA25210
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> > What a wonderful explanation of why one can't prove a negative! See my
> > comments below.
> >
> > Bob Flood wrote:
> >
> > > At 01:20 AM 2/15/00 -0600, you wrote:
> > > >
> > > >> It is impossible to demonstrate something has no risk.
> > > >
> > > >Because . . . (?) few (if any) objects or activities have no risk.
> > >
> > > No, it's because you can't prove a negative. For example, let's have
you
> > > prove that did not rob a bank yesterday. Identify every bank that you
> > > didn't rob, the witnesses that saw you not rob them, and the FBI
report
> > > identifying all the fingerprints that aren't yours.
> > >
> > > You really can't prove a negative.
> > >
> > > And this is the environment in which the nuclear industry is required
to
> > > operate. The highly visible and vocal opposition demands that the
industry
> > > be eradicated because it cannot prove that it isn't killing people.
The
> > > opposition can't prove that it IS killing people, but they don't seem
to
> > > feel there's any reason why they should - they are very comfortable
with
> > > the idea that it's the industry's obligation to prove they don't.
> >
> > And, whenever you have a discussion on this subject, be sure the ground
rules
> > are established before the main discussion begins. I was sandbagged one
day
> > when I was to discuss the hazards of plutonium. I was under the
impression
> > that those people on the side of "plutonium is the most dangerous
material on
> > earth" had to prove their argument. It turned out that I was expected
to
> > prove "plutonium is not the most dangerous material on earth." But no
one
> > told me that beforehand. So, of course I lost. The moderator even told
me
> > afterward what I was expected to do. I was incensed, but it was too
late
> > then. I learned a good lesson from that mistake.
> >
> > > How
> > > convenient. It's a pity we have a press that can't figure this out.
And as
> > > long as the press don't get wise to this technique, the opposition
will be
> > > far more effective at scaring people than we ever will be at undoing
this
> > > damage.
> > >
> > > But the question remains, how do we change this?
> >
> > We use your example every time we hear or see someone try to tell us we
must
> > prove safety or no risk (absolutely impossible to do). If anyone else
has a
> > similar example, please post it. I will collect them for future use.
The
> > only way to change the current thinking is to provide thinking that is
better
> > and more truthful. The truth will out as the statement "You can't prove
a
> > negative" will eventually be understood and accepted (by most thinking
people
> > - the feelers will have a problem with it, of course) even by the EPA!
It may
> > take a while, but, if vigorously pursued, will win in the end.
> >
> > Al Tschaeche antatnsu@pacbell.net
> >
> > --------------F5E29A2DE6C4764B3CA25210
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> >
> > begin:vcard
> > n:Tschaeche;Al
> > x-mozilla-html:FALSE
> > org:Nuclear Standards Unlimited
> > version:2.1
> > email;internet:antatnsu@postoffice.pacbell.net
> > title:CEO
> > x-mozilla-cpt:;0
> > fn:Al Tschaeche
> > end:vcard
> >
> > --------------F5E29A2DE6C4764B3CA25210--
> >
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