Re: How much plutonium?????

["Ron L. Kathren" <rkathren@tricity.wsu.edu>]

Dear Cathy Lee ==

Saw your message, and a couple of answers provided by my colleagues, and
thought I should put my own two cents worth in.  To state that half a kilo
of plutonium could induce lung cancer in everyone on the planet is analogous
to stating that one gun could kill everyone on the planet.  Theoreticaly, if
you have enough bullets, this is possible, but in reality it is a practical
impossibility.

The problem with plutonium is a bit more complex than the gun analogy.  Most
experts would agree that cancer induction by plutonium is probabalistic
(scientists use the term stochastic) -- by that I mean that an exposure
carries with it some risk of inducing lung cancer.  But the risk is not
ever100%, no matter how high the dose.  If the dose gets sufficiently high
(huge by protection standards), the person would die of something else such
as acute radiation pneumonitis.   So the statement that half a kilo could
induce lung cancer in everyone on the planet is on its face incorrect.

Another question is why someone would make this allegation if it is false.
When someone wants to make a point politically or for some self serving
purpose, it is easy to quote even a completely correct statement (and the
one about plutonium as I mentioned is incorrect) to prove a point and have
it be misleading.  I could cite many examples.  But I think this one will
serve:  suppose that I am opposed to licensing drivers.  To prove why
licensing drivers not only does not contribute to safety but is unsafe in
itself, I correctly point out that in virtually all fatal automobile
accidents, the drivers involved had valid driver's licenses.  Therefore, to
support my desire not to license drivers, I conclude on the basis of that
statistic that licensing of drivers not only does not eliminate fatal
accidents, but actually contributes to them.  I can support my case further
by noting that prior to licensure of drivers, say in 1910, they were few if
any deaths from automobile accidents.  Of course I completely neglect to
mention a few other important facts, such as the fact that there were only a
few automobile, and speeds were very low, etc.  But you get the idea.

I commend you on your inquiring mind; this is the mark of a good scientist,
and if you are considering a career, look into becoming a scientist.  It is
interesting and stimulating work, pays well, and for the most part, a lot of
fun.  If you have further questions, please do not hesitate to contact me
at:   rkathren@tricity.wsu.edu

Ron Kathren
Professor Emeritus
Washington State University


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