RE: epi studies

["Minnema, Douglas" <Douglas.Minnema@ns.doe.gov>]

Dear RADSAFErs,

Thanks to Mike Grissom and George Vargo, I was pointed to the RERF website
for the info I was looking for.  I thought that I would resend the message
below with the numbers filled in.  (Note some changes in text also).

The only number not available from the website is the total cost, but below
is an estimate based on the US's current annual budget for the activity, and
a quess at the Japanese contribution.  I am not real worried about the
quality of that number, but the order of magnitude is probably correct.

For those of you wondering, my purpose is not to make any political
statements here, but rather to point out the difficulty and complexity of
searching for a needle in a haystack, even when the doses are large (the
cohort groups range from 0 to 4 Gy).  Low-dose studies obviously become much
more difficult to do correctly.

> -----Original Message-----
> 
> RADSAFErs,
> 
> At one time I had seen a very brief summary of the efforts to study the
> effects of radiation in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors.  I always felt
> that it helped put the whole epidemiological study concept into
> perspective,
> as well as the effects of radiation on humans.  The summary basically
> consisted of the following numbers:
> 
	Data for period of 1950 to 1990:

> 1.	Amount of money spent on study: ~ $1 - $2 billion (US$)
> 
> 2.	# of people in study: 86,572
> 
> 3.	# of observed cancer fatalities (solid tumors/leukemia): 7,578 / 249
> 
> 4.	# of excess cancers attributed to the exposures: 334 / 87
> 
	Draw your own conclusion, but I personally have a lot of trouble
accepting that the low-dose studies can ever approach this level of quality
because the numbers are just not there.

	On a side note, while visiting the RERF website I discovered a
tribute to Dr. James V. Neel, 84, who apparently passed away in February of
this year from cancer (sorry if I missed a previous notice here).  Dr.
Neel's loss should be felt by us all, for the significant contribution he
has made to our science over these many years.  For those of you who did not
know, he first started working with the bomb survivors in 1947, and
continued working with RERF until his death.

> Doug Minnema, PhD, CHP
> Defense Programs
> US DOE
> 
> what few thoughts i have are truly my own
> 

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