Re: Deaths from fossil fuel burning air pollution

["Otto G. Raabe" <ograabe@ucdavis.edu>]

At 12:53 PM 11/17/00 -0600, Prof. Cohen wrote:
>	There was some discussion recently on estimates of number of
>deaths per year in U.S. from air pollution due to fossil fuels.  The
source was an EPA Report released in
>November 1999, EPA-410-R-99-01 on Benefits and costs of the Clean Air Act.
>It is loaded with references, but when all is said and done, the principal
>reference is to a study by a large Harvard Group published by C.A. Pope
>and 6 coauthors, Am J Respir Crit Care Med 151:669-674;1995. It was a
>prospective study linking air pollution data on sulfate particles and fine
>particulates for 151 Metropolitan areas with individual risk factors for
>552,000 adults who resided in those areas, 11,000 of whom died during the
>follow-up period. They adjusted for smoking, education, and and several
>other factors. The ratio of mortality risk (with 95% confidence intervals)
>for the most polluted to the least polluted areas were:
>	Based on sulfates, all causes 1.15 (1.09-1.22)
>			   lung CA 1.36 (1.11-1.66) 
>			   cardiopulminary 1.26 (1.16-1.37)
>
>	Based on fine particulates, all causes 1.17 (1.09-1.26)
>				    lung CA 1.03 (0.80-1.33)
>				    cardiopulmonary 1.31 (1.17-1.46
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November 17, 2000
Davis, CA

Their many confounding factors that can affect an epidemiological study of
this type that are not identified or controlled. Most particulate air
pollution is ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate, salts of low if any
toxicity. The most toxic air pollutants are gasses, not particles. The most
harmful air pollutant in big cities is probably ozone produced from nitric
oxide released by automobiles. There is virtually no sulfate released by
automobiles. Was this considered in this study? Was there a control for ozone?

Also, particulate air pollution is correlated to atmospheric conditions
such as inversions, barometric pressure changes, relative humidity, and
sudden changes in temperature. These factors can alter death rates for sick
people. Was there any control on these.

I think that particulate matter has become an epidemiological scape goat
for pollution effects.

Otto
**********************************************
Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP
Institute of Toxicology & Environmental Health
(Street Address: Bldg. 3792, Old Davis Road) 
University of California, Davis, CA 95616
E-Mail: ograabe@ucdavis.edu
Phone: (530) 752-7754   FAX: (530) 758-6140
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