RE: RADSAFE digest 3542 -Reply

[John Flood <FloodJR@nv.doe.gov>]

>>> "Miller, Mark L"
<mmiller@sandia.gov> 12/11/00 08:19am
>>>

>A lot of well-intentioned, but
>misguided activists have successfully
>blocked construction of adequate
>generating capacity (of ANY kind,
>nuclear or otherwise).

I believe that deregulation of the
power industry has had a larger
influence on the situation, but the
opposers certainly will figure in the
solution.

When power production was a fully
regulated monopoly, as it has been
until now, each utility had a service
area for which it was clearly
responsible for providing adequate
generating capacity. It invested its
money in new capacity with the approval
of its regulator and was guartanteed a
return on that investment.

Deregulation ended that - now there is
no identifiable institution that has
responsibility for ensuring there is
enough electricity to go around. It
will be market-driven. Given the large
investment and the regulatory maze
associated with building any
electricity generating system,
companies aren't going to invest until
they are certain the demand will ensure
an adequate return on investment - they
aren't going to risk their money.

Another factor in the equation is that
there is something in it for the power
companies to drag their feet at
building new capacity. It has become
fashionable in many industries in
recent years to cry "shortage" and
severely boost the price of the item or
commodity, and the power industry
stands to experience an enormous
windfall over the next few years from
unregulated pricing in a shortage
market. Facing an opportunity for
dramatically higher prices with no
additional investment - why wouldn't
they?

Once the shortages take effect, the
opposers may actually have a harder
time enlisting public support for their
causes when their solutions involve the
public enduring even greater
electricity shortages.

Bob Flood

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