Using an ICRP model...

[Muckerheide <muckerheide@mediaone.net>]

..."the risk is very real."  Would you be embarrassed if you were from
Princeton. :-)

Regards, Jim
muckerheide@mediaone.net
=======================
 
January 16, 2001 

Asian Nuclear Accidents Could Kill Thousands: Study

By REUTERS

Filed at 5:33 p.m. ET

NEW DELHI (Reuters Health) - Accidents involving nuclear weapons in South
Asian cities like Delhi or Karachi could cause thousands of cancer-related
deaths, according to a report from scientists at the Center for Energy and
Environmental Studies at Princeton University.

Conducted by Pakistani researcher Zia Mian and two Indian researchers, M. V.
Ramana and R. Rajaraman, the study focuses on release of radioactive
plutonium into the atmosphere when an accident causes the nuclear weapon's
plutonium core to explode but does not lead to an actual nuclear explosion.

``A typical weapon may have 5 kilograms (kg) of plutonium and in the
accidental scenario we have considered in our study, probably a very
conservative 20% of it, or 1 kg, will get dispersed into air as (inhalable)
aerosols or small particles,'' Ramana told Reuters Health.

``When people breathe this, the chief health hazard is increased possibility
of lung, bone or liver cancers,'' Ramana said.

``Employing a model used by the International Commission for Radiological
Protection, we found that on a very conservative estimate...around 5,000
people would die of cancers if (a nuclear accident) happens near a typical
city like Delhi or Karachi,'' Ramana noted. ``On the higher side, the deaths
could be as high as 20,000,'' he said, emphasizing that there are several
uncertainties involved in calculations.

Nuclear weapon accidents ``typically involve delivery vehicles, either
aircraft or missiles,'' the authors point out in their report.

India's Comptroller and Auditor General's 1997 report listed 187 accidents
and 2,729 incidents involving Indian Air Force (IAF) aircraft between April
1991 and March 1997, in which the IAF lost 147 aircraft and 63 pilots. Many
more have been lost subsequently.

Pakistan Institute of Defence Studies says that 11 major Pak Air Force
accidents occurred between January 1997 and August 1998.

On January 4th, while showing a missile assembly to the Defence Secretary at
Bharat Dynamics Ltd. (BDL), a defence establishment in the southern city of
Hyderabad, the general manager of BDL pressed a wrong button, triggering off
a live missile.

The missile took off, pierced and killed technical officer Narsimha Chari on
the spot and injured 10 others. The warhead on the missile escaped explosion
as it had travelled only 30 feet rather than the requisite 70 feet needed
for igniting it. Hyderabad police called it a case of group negligence.

In contrast, a small Hiroshima-sized weapon exploding over Mumbai or Karachi
would kill 150,000 to 800,000 people within a few weeks from blast, burns
and radiation, Ramana told Reuters Health.

``What is likely is that there will be panic and flight creating an
unprecedented disaster in its own right,'' the authors of the study note.
Panic, confusion and miscalculation may even trigger a nuclear attack as a
response to nuclear explosion. ``Thus, an accidental explosion may even
initiate a nuclear war,'' the study indicates.

``If India and Pakistan deploy their nuclear weapons, they too shall face
the risk of accidents involving nuclear weapons,'' the researchers point
out. ``The risk is very real.''

The scientists add, ``Prudence, if nothing else, dictates that India and
Pakistan not deploy nuclear weapons.'' Keeping any weapons that are produced
disassembled may reduce the danger of accidental explosions or launch
``through error, panic or miscalculation,'' they report.

************************************************************************
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