Large Light Water Reactor License Renewals (Extensions)

[Paul William Shafer <paulwilliam_s@YAHOO.COM>]

Dear Radsafe Professionals:



Does anyone have additional information regarding

"Probabilistic Risk Analyses or Assessment of Light

Water Reactors Operating Up to 80 years."  I have read

NRC TIP 7 "Reactor Pressure Embrittlement" and Chapter

IV of NRC's Generic Aging Lessons Learned Report.

There are a number of EPRI reports I have read as

well. I have some concerns about these documents.



The questions I am trying to get answered are:

     

     1) Is there an increase in the probability of a

reactor incident involving fuel support component

degradation, degradation of other reactor internal

components or reduced pressure vessel integrity as the

number of full power reactor years increases?  And if

so, by how much? What are the effects of component

degradation on fuel integrity if any)?



     2) In the 2nd license period (age 40 to 80 years)

do the requirements for frequency of

In-Service-Inspection and Special Inspections

(including metallurgy) increase as the reactor gets

older?  And if so by how much?  How much does an

increase in ISI/SI increase occupational radiation

dosages?  Will there be a need for additional Health

Physics staff at these power plants as they age?



     3) Will there be a need for additional chemical

decontamination of reactor systems during the 2nd 40

years of operation?  How much additional radioactive

wastes will this generate?  Will this result in the

need for additional Health Physics staff at these

power plants as they age?



I have a number of additional questions regarding this

however it would take too much space here.  



Re-licensing of large light water nuclear power plants

seems to be a Catch-22 situation.  It would of course

help the nuclear utilities generate substantial base

line electrical energy at hopefully continued

reasonable rates.  However, if there is one serious

accident due to fatigue or embrittlement factors which

have not been assessed (in the field--1.e. by actual

operating reactor experience beyond 40 years) this

could spell the demise of nuclear electricity in this

century. (There is much more than just neutron

activation involved here---differences in reactor and

system metallurgy, reactor chemistry, scrams, minor

heat transients etc. are all involved and cannot be

adequately simulated by computer models).  Also, this

could actual delay the start up of the replacement

advanced much higher efficiency (heat rate) modular

inert gas cooled reactors, and accelerate the

production of electricity by natural gas using

mini-turbines and super-heated steam.  In other words,

what I am trying to say is large scale relicensing of

current large light water reactors may lead to their

eventual replacement by rapid load following natural

gas fueled electrical generators by 2050-2060 (unless

there are significant technological improvements in

advanced energy systems---solar photovoltaics,

storage, fuel cell technology, wind generations or

fusion).



Any comments would be appreciated.



Paul W. Shafer  





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