Fw: Global Warming Again!

["Jerry Cohen" <jjcohen@PRODIGY.NET>]

----- Original Message -----

From: Jerry Cohen <jjcohen@prodigy.net>

To: Michael McNaughton <mcnaught@lanl.gov>

Sent: Thursday, July 19, 2001 4:25 PM

Subject: Re: Global Warming Again!



Mike,



 Statistically significant? I don't buy it.

 In terms on geologic/climatologic history, a few decades is but

 a fleeting moment.   Jer



>     Jerry,

> > I am not sure if we are understanding each other. Yes, I agree there is

a

> > large amount of uncertainty in the data. Yes, I know that large

> > fluctuations are possible. Yes, I understand statistics. Now, if we use

to

> > statistics to examine the data we find that one year's average is not

> > statistically significant but 10 years' data are statistically

> significant.

> > Are we in agreement about that much?

> >

> > Furthermore, the potential consequences are serious, as in millions of

> > people dying in Bangladesh. Therefore, we should neither cry "The sky is

> > falling", nor should we dismiss the statistical fluctuations as proof

that

> > we know nothing.

> >

> > Are we playing in the same ball field here?

> >

> > mike

> >

> > Mike McNaughton



> ----- Original Message -----

> From: Michael McNaughton <mcnaught@lanl.gov>

> To: Jerry Cohen <jjcohen@prodigy.net>

> Sent: Thursday, July 19, 2001 3:13 PM

> Subject: Re: Global Warming Again!

>

>

> > At 02:40 PM 7/19/01 -0700, you wrote:

> > >Mike,

> > >     Actually, it's much worse than your data would indicate.

> >

> > Jerry

> >

> > Los Alamos National Lab.

> > email: mcnaught@LANL.gov or mcnaughton@LANL.gov

> > phone: (505)667-6130

> >

>



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