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Risk Communication/Wind Power/LOCA/LOBA Accidents



Radsafe:

Given the extensive recent discussion on Radsafe  on risk communication
issues  and wind power pros & cons, copied below is a news item about an
unfortunate fatal accident at a windmill in California in 1981 and the satire
I authored in a Letter-to-the-Editor about the "most dreaded of all power
generation accidents -- the Loss of Blade Accident (LOBA). LOBA is a non-too
veiled tongue-in-cheek allusion to LOCAs.  For those on Radsafe who consider
this issue superfluous, hit your delete key now and no flaming please.  
Thanks.

I came across a folder containing this LOBA related material in finally
cleaning up some old files following a move. This LOBA satire became the
subject of a luncheon speech by some environmental scientists shortly
following its publication, as an example of creative ways to make people
think about environmental risks of alternate energy technologies.

Otto Grabbe had recently posed a question to Radsafe looking for documented
accidents at windmills so the news article below is one cite. While this
fatality is 20 years old, I'm sure it wasn't the last and won't be the last
accident due to falls in erecting or servicing windmills or alternate energy
components like solar panels. Also, before I'm attacked as a heretic by every
wind advocacy group, I'm not against windmills only in favor of balanced
understanding and consideration of risks and benefits in making societal
decisions on power production. For balance,  I also recall seeing a DOE
report about 20 years ago that in reviewing all fatal accidents at DOE
facilites the major cause of  worker death was not radiation, but gravity.
Falls killed more workers than any other thing. However, I'm sure the risk of
falls in nuclear facilities due to falls is far less per unit energy produced
that falls in workers climbing 200 foot windmill towers, or homeowners
clearing snow or dirt off solar panels PER UNIT ENERGY PRODUCED.

First the original windmill accident news story:

Source (News in Brief):
The Evening [Providence, RI] Bulletin, Dec. 31, 1981

MAN KILLED AT WINDMILL


Boulevard, Calif. (UPI) --The owner of a Pennsylvania windmill  manufacturing
company may have been struck and killed by a windmill blade at a "wind farm"

Sheriff's Sgt. Curt Ring said Terrence Mehrkam, 34, was found dead yesterday
at the base of the 40-foot high electricity-generating windmill at the
Buckeye Wind Farm in eastern San Diego County.  "It appears the victim....was
either struck by a loose blade or fell due to the vibration of the tower when
the blade broke free," Ring said"

======
In reading this I instantly recognized that this accident was the stuff of
which satires were born.  My subsequent satirical letter on the dreaded Loss
of Blade Accident [LOBA] published as a Letter-to-the-Editor of the
Providence Sunday Journal follows:


Jan. 24, 1982 [Providence Journal]

THE POTENTIAL DANGERS OF WINDMILLS


The Evening Bulletin on Dec. 31 reported an unfortunate but predictable power
generation accident at a "windmill farm" in California. The president of a
windmill manufacturing company was struck and killed when the windmill he was
working on threw a blade.

Accidents of this sort are expected, in view of suppressed government
safety-analysis studies of windmill use in electricity generation.

Despite perception of the windmill as a totally harmless energy source, as
windmill electricity generation proliferates, innocent people will be exposed
to the most dreaded of all power generation accidents -- the Loss of Blade
Accident (LOBA). As windmills get larger and blade speed increases, LOBA
scenarios predict deadly blade breakdown fragments radiating to great
distances from windmills.

In a worst-case analysis, a blade fragment could strike a passing 747 jumbo
jet, causing it to crash into a crowded sports stadium and possibly killing
50,000 people. As demonstrated with the Block Island windmill, funded by the
Department of Energy, blade rotation can interfere with TV reception, causing
widespread impacts on health due to anxiety, and even possibly increase
suicide rates.

Now is the time, before a major windmill disaster occurs, to declare at least
a five year moratorium on any new windmills (and perhaps any machine with
propellers) until detailed safety studies can be completed and be accepted by
popular vote. Protection of public health and safety demands no less.

To paraphrase Bob Dylan's classic song: "How many deaths will it take 'till
we've learned that too many people have died? The problem, my friend, is
blowing in the wind."

Stewart Farber
M.S. Public Health
Air Pollution Control
Providence
=================================

COMMENT:
Despite the clear satirical and facetious nature of the above letter,  3
people wrote the Providence Journal taking it seriously and attacking me. I'm
sure the readers of Radsafe can relate to the use of nuclear related
terminology in discussing windmills:

--LOBA [vs. LOCA -Loss of Coolant Accidents at nuclear plants]

--"suppressed government safety studies" [I was thinking of the then recent
Inhaber report out of Canada on alternate energy risks]

--"windmill electricity generation proliferates" [play on nuclear
proliferation issue]

--"deadly .....breakdown fragments..radiating to great distances"  [buzzwords
used in antinuclear rhetoric]. In actuality, when a windmill throws a blade
it can fly astounding distances due to a feathering effect. An early small
electricity generating windmill built on Grandpa's Knoll in Vermont during
the 1940s threw a blade after ice build-up and flew about 500 yards as I
recall. Today's large windmills have blades several hundred feet across and
the tip speed, despite their low rpms is quite high. If a tip element breaks
off on the upswing its going to feather even further and these blades weight
many tons. Is there a hazard? Sure. Is it safe? Compared to what?

--"worst-case analysis"...50,000 deaths " [this was based on a then real
recent study of the worst conceivable accident in aviation where a plane
landing at LA International Airport crashed into the Rose Bowl during a
sellout game where it was calculated that 50,000 people could be killed]. If  
large windmill farms  were built along the coast could a plane ever be struck
by a windmill blade fragment? The probability isn't zero.

--"widespread impacts on health including anxiety" -- For real. There had
been raucous public meetings on Block Island [RI] after a DOE prototype
windmill in 1980 resulted in poor TV reception all over Block Island. People
were outraged and angry when their TV reception was affected. DOE had to lay
cable TV to every house on Block Island to assuage the residents at a cost
exceeding the initial cost of the windmill itself. The Block Island windmill
was eventually shut down because the maintenance costs exceeded the value of
the electricity generated, even before the capital cost of the windmill began
to be paid back. Of course it was only a "prototype" so lets cut it some
slack.

--"declare at least a five-year moratorium.....until detailed safety studies
can be completed and be accepted by popular vote." ---Why does this sound so
ludicrous regarding windmills when anti-nuclear activists like Ray Shadis
make similar if not even more outrageous demands [with great evidence of
nuclear power benefits/incentives  vs. their trivial risks]  regarding
existing baseload nuclear stations??

From my perspective, even more droll than my LOBA satire were the three
letters to the editor responses to it attacking me. I will reproduce only one
which came from of all places, an Electric Utility Engineer who failed to see
my letter was a satire:

Providence Journal, Feb. 10, 1982
SOLVING PROBLEMS OF WIND TURBINES


The letter appearing in the Sunday, Jan. 24 issue of the Providence Journal,
"The potential dangers of windmills" is incredibly preposterous. the comments
published are a vicious and irrational attack on the blossoming wind energy
business.

The statements about the tragic accident in California are purely
speculative. The exact cause of  the victim's death is unknown to this date.

It is true, problems such as TV interference and vibration with early
Department of Energy funded wind turbines. However, the DOE wind turbines are
experimental with the purposes of assessing the benefits and problems
associated with large wind turbine electrical generation. Later developed
wind turbines were designed around early problems using studied solution
based on learned experiences.

Furthermore, utilizing sensationalism and inventing ominous terms exhibits
unprofessionalism.

Allen Brown
Electric Utility Engineer
Lincoln

====================


Perhaps we can excuse Mr. Brown not seeing some of the nuclear related
buzzwords in my letter as satire since the utility for which he worked was
not involved in nuclear power engineering work.

In any case, three subsequent letters-to-the-editor including one published
on Feb. 10, 1982  finally recognized my LOBA letter as a creative "Windy
Satire".

Subsequently, my LOBA satire was picked up by the infamous, and sometimes
outrageous late Dr. Petr Beckman of the Univ. of Colorodo who for many years
was the author of the stimulating and  widely read "Access To Energy
Newsletter" where he referred to the unfortunate death of the windmill
designer Terrance Mehrkam in an article titled:

Access to Energy -Feb. 1982
"The Non-Karen Silkwood of Windpower"


"And Mehrkam will become no Karen Silkwood, the....young woman who died in a
one-car accident (like Mehrkam, without known witnesses), for the supporters
of abundant energy, unlike its opponents, have no inclination to primitive
paranoia. No one for example, will mistake the intent of a letter to the
editor of the Providence Sunday Journal (1/24/82) on "The potential dangers
of windmills" referring to this accident":
[excerpts from my letter followed]

Little did Dr. Beckman know but at least three individuals who wrote the
Providence Journal missed the satire.

Regards,
Stewart Farber, MS Public Heath
Consulting Scientist
Public Health Sciences
172 Old Orchard Way
Warren, VT 05674
[802] 496-3356