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RE: RESRAD Risk/Dose Question



Eric,



The reason you are getting non-zero risks from ingestion of Sr-90 in

groundwater almost 30 years before you get breakthrough is due to the

different time frames over which RESRAD calculates dose and risk.  Using

your example and Version 6.1 of RESRAD, I got a breakthrough in groundwater

between 37 and 38 years.



RESRAD calculates the dose over a full year during which the receptor is

exposed to the radionuclide (Version 6 and higher does a time integration of

concentrations in water over the year during which intake occurs); the dose

factors themselves incorporate a 50-year commitment, so that the dose from

one year of intake is actually incurred over the 50 years subsequent to the

intake (for Sr-90, most of the dose actually occurs in first year following

intake).  Therefore, the dose incurred from drinking water starts some time

into the 37th year.



By default, RESRAD assumes a 30-year exposure duration AFTER the time at

which a receptor starts occupancy of the site.  This parameter, found in the

"Occupancy" input window, is used only for risk calculations (and not for

the committed dose in the year of intake).  Therefore, risks start showing

up as early as year 8 (8+30 = 38).  At this point, the receptor would

actually be exposed only during a fraction of the last year of occupancy, so

the risk will be very low.  Since risk factors use models similar to those

used in deriving the dose factors, there will also be a commitment from

ingestion of radionuclides that extends over time (I am not sure if the

integration time is 50 years or 70 years in the case of risk factors, since

these are derived for all members of the public, not just adults).



You may view the exposure duration as a way to integrate exposures and risks

over a period longer than one year.  If you divide the 30-year risk by 30,

you will essentially have a 30-year moving average of the annual risk. If

you want risks to be calculated on an annual basis, to be consistent with

the dose incurred in any given year, change the exposure duration from 30 to

1.



Ernesto Faillace, Eng.D, CHP

Nuclear Engineer/Health Physicist

Tetra Tech NUS

900 Trail Ridge Rd

Aiken, SC 29803

(803) 649-7963 x303

(803) 642-8454 (fax)

faillacee@ttnus.com



-----Original Message-----

From: Frohmberg, Eric [mailto:Eric.Frohmberg@STATE.ME.US]

Sent: Tuesday, December 04, 2001 10:20 AM

To: 'radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu'

Subject: RESRAD Risk/Dose Question





Hi All,



Here is a question for you modelers and RESRAD experts.  You also may find

it entertaining as it is modeling "proof" that there is no such thing as

zero risk.



For various obscure reasons, I've done a RESRAD run using all default

parameters with the exception of using an initial concentration of 1 pCi/g

of Sr-90 and a Kd of 6 (for all soil zones).  When looking at the results I

get an initial dose beginning at year 41.  I also find Sr 90 in the well

water at year 41 (I'm fine with this, this all makes sense, I presume, based

on breakthrough times, etc.).  But when I use RESRAD to calculate risk, I

start to get risk from drinking well water at year 8!  Granted the risks are

"small" (as one would expect with no concentration!) but one could argue

they shouldn't be there at all!



I presume this is due to a rounding issue - RESRAD is calling concentrations

below a certain limit zero - but it is doing this AFTER calculating (and

storing) the risk numbers.  Has anyone experienced this same issue?  Can

anyone confirm that this is what is happening?



I can email anyone interested the raw data, but it is easy enough to run

yourself.  The initial concentration of Sr-90 is 1 pCi/g.  Under transport

option, change the Kd in the various zones (contaminated, unsaturated and

saturated) to 6.  Leave all the other values as defaults.  Run the model and

look at the "standard graphics" for concentration in well water, dose from

drinking water, and risk from drinking water.  You'll see the risk appears

before the strontium ends up in the drinking water.  



Thanks for your collective experience,

Eric





Eric Frohmberg, Toxicologist

Environmental Toxicology Program

Maine Bureau of Health

11 State House Station

Key Bank Plaza, 8th Floor

Augusta, ME 04355



207-287-8141 (phone)

207-287-9058 (fax)

eric.frohmberg@state.me.us



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