Re: Risks of low level radiation - New Scientist Article

[Muckerheide <muckerheide@MEDIAONE.NET>]

> From: "Jim Nelson" <nelsonjima@HOTMAIL.COM>



> Mr. Dukelow,

> 

> Are you a statistician?  Larger populations are good if you have good

> underlying data to describe the population.  Unfortuantely, it is very hard

> to derive good data from surrogate ecologic measurmements such as sales tax

> on cigarettes (used to infer smoking).

> 

> The other study I provided a link to did use data from individuals as Dr.

> King suggested.



Large good studies beat small marginal studies all the time! It's still

Iowa, and you still don't have individual dose data!

 

> As I told Dr. Cohen a few weeks ago, I agree with the papers by Smith et al.

> that describe the limitations of Dr. Cohen's work.



Since these papers are rhetoric, without data or analysis, it is not

important whether you 'agree' or not.  :-)  It's important whether you have

data or analyses that question Cohen's results?



Since there are none after more than 12 years of trying, hi-lited by the

BEIR VI inability to question the data or results, and desperate arithmetic

to pretend that the miners and small case-control studies mean anything.



> The smoking data he uses is so bad, it can only predict a little over 30% of

> the the lung cancers in the counties. If there was no confounding, it should

> be able to predict 85% or so.  I do not call that good control of confounding.



In the most extreme condition, all smoking negatively correlated with radon,

does not change Cohen's results. (Maybe not in ANY of his hundreds of

independent studies!)



Jim



> Jim

> 

>> 

>> "... if you can use data from discrete individuals that is preferable to

>> ecologic data." is the magic phrase.  In the case Dr. Cohen was looking at,

>> satisfactory data from discrete individuals was not and is not available.

>> Cohen's data set has a lot to recommend it -- larger populations with

>> better statistics and much better control for confounding factors.

>> 

>> Best regards.

>> 

>> Jim Dukelow

>> Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

>> Richland, WA

>> jim.dukelow@pnl.gov

>> 

>> These comments are mine and have not been reviewed and/or approved by my

>> management or by the U.S. Department of Energy.



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