Re: "Are you a statistician?"

[Muckerheide <muckerheide@MEDIAONE.NET>]

> From: "Doug Huffman" <dhuffman@awod.com>



> Oh well.  Another *plonk*  Norm was lonesome I'm sure.  The question "are

> you a statistician" is still open but I won't see the answer.

> 

> The conspiracy of ignorance masquerades as common sense.



But at least it's the "Emperor with no clothes" costume! :-)



Jim

> ----- Original Message -----

> From: "Jim Nelson" <nelsonjima@HOTMAIL.COM>



>> Mr. Dukelow,

>> 

>> We will indeed need to agree to disagree.  I think papers by Field and Smith

>> are very persuasive.  It looks like other scientist who adhere to the

>> "scientific method" feel the same way.  I see this posting at the Iowa

>> website http://www.cheec.uiowa.edu/misc/radon.html confirms my beliefs.

>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------

>> 

>> COMMENTS FROM OTHER SCIENTIST

>> "The Iowa Radon Lung Cancer Study, conducted by Drs. R. William Field,

>> Charles F. Lynch and colleagues represents by far the most substantial study

>> of residential radon health effects accomplished to date. By rigorous

>> analysis of radon exposures for women with lung cancer and matched controls,

>> this study has shown a clear association between lung cancer and radon

>> exposures in homes.

>> 

>> A major advantage of this study was the high radon levels found in Iowa

>> homes, which showed about a 50% increase in lung cancer risk at the EPA

>> action level of 4 pCi/L. The Iowa lung Cancer Study is a major milestone for

>> confirming lung cancer incidence due to radon exposures as predicted by the

>> National Academy of Sciences BEIR VI report. The researchers should be highly

>> commended for this definitive study showing substantial lung cancer risks due

>> to radon exposures in homes."

>> 

>> Raymond Johnson, Certified Health Physicist

>> (Past) President, Health Physics Society

>> 

>> I would be glad to discuss this directly with you after you unpack and check

>> the assertions I made. Please email me directly.

>> 

>> Jim Nelson

>> 

>>> "Are you a statistician?"  Ah, the subtle appeal to authority.  I am as much

>>> of a statistician as the average epidemiologist.  My education is in

>>> mathematics and nuclear engineering, with an MA and ABD in Math and an MS in

>>> Nuclear Engineering.  In my career in the nuclear business I have worked

>>> primarily as a risk and safety analyst.  Risk analysis, of course, is

>>> essentially probabilistic and statistical.  Before my mid-life crisis and

>>> switch to nuclear engineering, I taught math full- and part-time in

>>> universities and colleges in the U.S. and Venezuela.  Since 1986, I have

>>> been on the adjunct faculty in Computer Science at the local campus of

>>> Washington State University -- and more recently adjunct faculty in

>>> Mathematics, teaching on the order of 12-15 courses during that time -- all

>>> of them mathematics, sometimes lightly disguised as computer science.  I

>>> have taught Baby Statistics and upper division Probability and Statistics a

>>> number of times.

>>> 

>>> That said, I consider myself a mathematician and engineer rather than a

>>> statistician.  I know enough statistics to be dangerous to myself and others

>>> and have, on various occasions, demonstrated both sides of that assertion.

>>> 

>>> I am familiar with Bill Field's Iowa radon study and with his criticisms of

>>> Cohen's work and have discussed both with him.  I am unpersuaded.  For the

>>> moment, I think we are agreeing to disagree.

>>> 

>>> You make an interesting assertion about Cohen's data that I cannot check

>>> immediately, as I am in the process of unpacking my office from a recent

>>> carpet replacement.  My strong impression/memory of his papers is that his

>>> control for confounding is very strong, much more so than any of the papers

>>> Field's cites, including his own.

>>> 

>>> Are you a statistician, Mr. Nelson?

>>> 

>>> Best regards.

>>> 

>>> Jim Dukelow

>>> Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

>>> Richland, WA

>>> jim.dukelow@pnl.gov

>>> 

>>> These comments are mine and have not been reviewed and/or approved by my

>>> management or by the U.S. Department of Energy.



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