Re: abstract: Childhood leukemia in Belarus

[Muckerheide <muckerheide@MEDIAONE.NET>]

 From: "Michael C. Baker" <mcbaker@LANL.GOV>



> I thought some of you might be interested in the following abstract.

> 

> Mike ... mcbaker@lanl.gov



Thanks, Mike



I haven't used this without more consideration of the data.  It seems

certain that no matter what the doses, there is no increase in leukemia in

the most highly exposed regions.  But the doses are based on just the

exposure to long-term Cs-137 contamination. A mean dose of about 10 mSv (1

rem). The paper shows that these results are consistent with our

radiobiology knowledge with projections (based on instantaneous a-bomb data)

that there would be an increase of 4/100,000 cases in a background of

60/100,000 cases (because childhood leukemia is "rare"?!)



First, it is interesting that this is the trivial exposure of the most

highly exposed populations from an event of the magnitude of Chernobyl.

(Consider what we usually presume to be the doses/consequences from reactor

accidents that can not be as enormous as Chernobyl!)



But second, it is not clear how/whether this study addresses the acute doses

at the time of the accident!?



I feel uncomfortable relying on the rather substantial conclusions here

without better info on the total doses.



I had set the paper aside to review in more detail and perhaps inquire of

Kellerer or other knowledgeable scientists before using these results. (Let

me know if you can assess the



However, since UNSCEAR has taken on a unique honest assessment of the health

effects of the Chernobyl accident (including the June 2001 Kiev meeting that

addressed traditional political interests to skew data for funding), and

will continue to assess all the Chernobyl data, leading up to the next

annual meeting (in May?), we may rely on this assessment, even though the

LNT-defenders kept the UNSCEAR Report supporting the LNT!?  But we have

great confidence that the incongruity of the LNT will collapse under its own

weight in the near future.



Consider though that ICRP has moved forward the date for its next

"recommendations."  Are they trying perhaps to get in a desperation attempt

to lock in the rad protection policies with their committed effort in their

draft recommendations to dissociate the rules from radiation health effects

science!? 



Thanks again. Merry Christmas.



Regards, Jim



> ----------------------

> Radiation and Environmental Biophysics

> Volume 40 Issue 4 (2001) pp 259-267

> 

> Childhood leukemia in Belarus before and after the Chernobyl accident:

> continued follow-up

> V. N. Gapanovich, R. F. Iaroshevich, L. P. Shuvaeva, S. I. Becker, E. A.

> Nekolla, A. M. Kellerer

> 

> Abstract: Earlier assessments led to the conclusion that due to the added

> radiation after the Chernobyl accident, childhood leukemia in Belarus was

> not recognisably increased in the years 1987-1994 compared to the years

> 1982-1986, i.e. the period before the accident. The present paper gives the

> data of the continued follow-up (1995-1998) which was conducted by the

> Institute of Haematology and Blood Transfusion, Minsk. In line with the

> earlier observations no increase has been identified. The incidence rates

> have been compared to the data of the newly established Belarussian

> Childhood Cancer Registry and a tentative explanation is given for apparent

> differences between the rates from our follow-up and the data reported

> earlier by the Belarussian Childhood Cancer Registry.

> 

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