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Re: Source of cancer data



Hello to all -



A dose of skepticism is usually healthy in matters

epidemiological.  I have a skeptical view of some

studies of low-level radiation.  My perception is that

studies of people who have been chronically

overexposed such as the radium dial painters and the

people in Mayak, Russia, are capable of yielding good

data, as they are 'natural experiments.'  I have

examined the Shipyard Worker study.  It appeared to be

conducted carefully.  I was very surprised that it was

not published.  



I recently did a term paper for a statistics class

with life expectancy data vs. radon.  The results,

stratified for whites, supported Cohen's results,

although they were very mild in nature, as would be

expected.  



However, I beg to differ on skepticism and the AIDS

'virus myth' stuff.



AIDS is an unfortunate 'natural experiment' that has

probably yielded the best epidemiological work of the

last half of the 20th century, as Dr. Weiner has

mentioned.  The overwhelming burden of evidence links

HIV infection with subequent development of AIDS.  



Some of the early 'detective work' involved families

in Africa.  HIV seroprevalence was measured in adults

and in children.  Small children with AIDS had mothers

who also had AIDS (maternal transmission).  Small

children whose mothers were HIV negative were also HIV

negative and had solid immune response parameters

(mosquitoes, forks, spoons, dirty laundry, toilet

seats...etc. are NOT transmitting AIDS).  



Some of this work was done before a large amount of

mother-to-child transmission occurred.



Other studies involved partner tracing.  This was done

not only among gay men in the United States but also

in Africa where heterosexual transmission is the rule.

 Paths of HIV transmission were drawn among networks

of partners.  This was classical epidemiological work,

but with a rather sensitive subject!  



The burden of evidence in all these epi studies

supports the theory of conjugal transmission.  



Most of the proponents of the 'Virus Myth' have a

sociopolitical agenda, rather than a scientific one. 

They have used all sorts of confounding factors, such

as cases of malaria, malnutrition, etc. to explain

away their argument.  However, they very rarely

support their argument scientifically with information

from parner or family tracing.  



The skepticism of the 'Virus Myth' proponents is a

very poor example to relate to skepticism concerning

radiation effects, which I believe has much better

grounds than any skepticism concerning the causative

role of HIV in AIDS.  



~Ruth Sponsler



> 

> January 2, 2002

> 

> 

> Well, I know several esteemed scientists who believe

> the general

> epidemiological association of AIDS and HIV is

> misleading and often

> biased by the investigators, and that HIV is really

> a harmless virus. See

> http://www.virusmyth.net/aids/index.htm

> 

>> 

> January 2, 2002

> 

> 

> Well, I know several esteemed scientists who believe

> the general

> epidemiological association of AIDS and HIV is

> misleading and often

> biased by the investigators, and that HIV is really

> a harmless virus. See

> http://www.virusmyth.net/aids/index.htm

> 

> 

> Otto

> 

> 

> 

> **********************************************

> 

> Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP

> 

> Center for Health & the Environment

> 

> (Street Address: Bldg. 3792, Old Davis Road) 

> 

> University of California, Davis, CA 95616

> 

> E-Mail: ograabe@ucdavis.edu

> 

> Phone: (530) 752-7754   FAX: (530) 758-6140

> 

> ***********************************************

>

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