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Re: Source of cancer data
Hello to all -
A dose of skepticism is usually healthy in matters
epidemiological. I have a skeptical view of some
studies of low-level radiation. My perception is that
studies of people who have been chronically
overexposed such as the radium dial painters and the
people in Mayak, Russia, are capable of yielding good
data, as they are 'natural experiments.' I have
examined the Shipyard Worker study. It appeared to be
conducted carefully. I was very surprised that it was
not published.
I recently did a term paper for a statistics class
with life expectancy data vs. radon. The results,
stratified for whites, supported Cohen's results,
although they were very mild in nature, as would be
expected.
However, I beg to differ on skepticism and the AIDS
'virus myth' stuff.
AIDS is an unfortunate 'natural experiment' that has
probably yielded the best epidemiological work of the
last half of the 20th century, as Dr. Weiner has
mentioned. The overwhelming burden of evidence links
HIV infection with subequent development of AIDS.
Some of the early 'detective work' involved families
in Africa. HIV seroprevalence was measured in adults
and in children. Small children with AIDS had mothers
who also had AIDS (maternal transmission). Small
children whose mothers were HIV negative were also HIV
negative and had solid immune response parameters
(mosquitoes, forks, spoons, dirty laundry, toilet
seats...etc. are NOT transmitting AIDS).
Some of this work was done before a large amount of
mother-to-child transmission occurred.
Other studies involved partner tracing. This was done
not only among gay men in the United States but also
in Africa where heterosexual transmission is the rule.
Paths of HIV transmission were drawn among networks
of partners. This was classical epidemiological work,
but with a rather sensitive subject!
The burden of evidence in all these epi studies
supports the theory of conjugal transmission.
Most of the proponents of the 'Virus Myth' have a
sociopolitical agenda, rather than a scientific one.
They have used all sorts of confounding factors, such
as cases of malaria, malnutrition, etc. to explain
away their argument. However, they very rarely
support their argument scientifically with information
from parner or family tracing.
The skepticism of the 'Virus Myth' proponents is a
very poor example to relate to skepticism concerning
radiation effects, which I believe has much better
grounds than any skepticism concerning the causative
role of HIV in AIDS.
~Ruth Sponsler
>
> January 2, 2002
>
>
> Well, I know several esteemed scientists who believe
> the general
> epidemiological association of AIDS and HIV is
> misleading and often
> biased by the investigators, and that HIV is really
> a harmless virus. See
> http://www.virusmyth.net/aids/index.htm
>
>>
> January 2, 2002
>
>
> Well, I know several esteemed scientists who believe
> the general
> epidemiological association of AIDS and HIV is
> misleading and often
> biased by the investigators, and that HIV is really
> a harmless virus. See
> http://www.virusmyth.net/aids/index.htm
>
>
> Otto
>
>
>
> **********************************************
>
> Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP
>
> Center for Health & the Environment
>
> (Street Address: Bldg. 3792, Old Davis Road)
>
> University of California, Davis, CA 95616
>
> E-Mail: ograabe@ucdavis.edu
>
> Phone: (530) 752-7754 FAX: (530) 758-6140
>
> ***********************************************
>
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