Re: Radon and Lung Cancer

[BERNARD L COHEN <blc+@PITT.EDU>]

	My response to the paper cited below has been submitted to HPJ and

is posted as Item #15 on my web site at   www.phyast.pitt. edu/~blc

	Jerry Puskin kindly sent me a preprint of his paper several months

ago so I was able to do extensive calculations and analyses in preparing

my response. The abstract of my responsing paper follows:



In studies of U.S. counties, we have reported that regression of lung

cancer rates,

m, with or without correction for smoking prevalence, S, on average radon

exposure, r, gives a

strong negative dependence (less cancer for more radon), a very large

discrepancy with the strong

positive dependence predicted by linear-no threshold theory. In a recent

paper, Puskin reported

results of simple regressions on r, and of multiple regressions on r and

S, for rates of lung cancer

and other smoking related cancers. He observed that the dependence on r is

strong and negative

in simple regressions, and not much less negative in multiple regressions,

for all cases. He

contends that a negative dependence on radon exposure for the other

smoking related cancers is

impossible, and concludes that his observation can only be caused by large

errors in our S-values,

missing a strong negative S-r correlation. He claims that this invalidates

our results for lung cancer.

In this paper, we examine Puskins proposed explanation quantitatively and

find that even a

perfect negative S-r correlation does not resolve the problem, regardless

of the width or shape of

the distribution of S-values assumed. We then review the three independent

sources of our

S-values, and show that they each give essentially the same results both

in our studies and in

Puskin's work, and in analogous studies of cancer rates in states (rather

than in counties) where

S-values have less uncertainty. Alternative explanations for the Puskin

observation, which do not

conflict with our previous conclusions, are then offered.



Bernard L. Cohen

Physics Dept.

University of Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh, PA 15260

Tel: (412)624-9245

Fax: (412)624-9163

e-mail: blc@pitt.edu





On Tue, 18 Mar 2003 epirad@mchsi.com wrote:



> I would be in other comments regarding this recent publication in the HPJ.

>

> Health Physics, Volume 84, Issue 4

>

> SMOKING AS A CONFOUNDER IN ECOLOGIC CORRELATIONS OF CANCER MORTALITY RATES

> WITH AVERAGE COUNTY RADON LEVELS

>

> J. S. Puskin*

>

> Abstract—Cohen has reported a negative correlation between lung cancer

> mortality and average radon levels by county. In this paper, the correlation

> of U.S. county mortality rates for various types of cancers during the period

> 1970-1994 with Cohen's radon measurements is examined. In general,

> quantitatively similar, strongly negative correlations are found for cancers

> strongly linked to cigarette smoking, weaker negative correlations are found

> for cancers moderately increased by smoking, whereas no such correlation is

> found for cancers not linked to smoking. The results indicate that the

> negative trend previously reported for lung cancer can be largely accounted

> for by a negative correlation between smoking and radon levels across

> counties. Hence, the observed ecological correlation provides no substantial

> evidence for a protective effect of low level radon exposure.

>

> Key words: radon; cancer; cigarettes; health effects

>

>  R. William Field, M.S., Ph.D.

> Community of Science:  http://myprofile.cos.com/Fieldrw

>

>

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