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RE: Puskin article[Scanned]
My question has always been, what is the correlation
between non-smokers, radon and lung cancer? How good
are the statistics when only these three variables are
considered? I would think that this goes to the heart
of the question by eliminating the issue of smoking
althogether.
--- Dr Christoph Hofmeyr <chofmeyr@nnr.co.za> wrote:
> Hi, all,
> About the Puskin paper: very interesting, but I
> decided against hasty comment. Interested persons
> should read prof Cohen's detailed response on his
> website.
>
> I found a more instructive presentation of Cohen's
> radon data if one orders the counties according to
> average radon level from 1 to 1600, i.e. plot
> against 'rank' from smallest to largest, rather than
> against radon level on a linear scale, as any
> dependence on high radon would stand out like a sore
> thumb (the average concentration doubles between
> rank 1400 and 1600). Lung cancer mortality shows a
> beautiful ~linear negative slope against 'rank' with
> no inflection where the county radon levels shoot up
> (between 1400 and 1600). Only where Cohen tried to
> deduce smoking prevalence from the lung cancer
> rates, does smoking show a clear negative dependence
> on radon rank. Where he used other methods, any
> correlation seems absent or very weak negative.
> Most other variables used by Cohen show no obvious
> correlation against radon 'rank'. I was postulating
> that age might be a culprit due to the very strong
> age dependence of cancer. However, this also drew a
> blank. So the plot thickens!
> . I conclude from the above plot that a doubling of
> the relevant radon levels between ~3 and 6 pCi/L
> (high end) most probably has a zero effect on lung
> cancer mortality. This contradicts the linear
> regressions used by Cohen or Puskin in that
> concentration range, which are clearly dominated by
> the lower concentration range up to about 3 pCi/L.
> Interesting? Own musings.
>
> Chris Hofmeyr
> chofmeyr@nnr.co.za
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael G. Stabin
> [mailto:michael.g.stabin@vanderbilt.edu]
> Sent: 24 April 2003 12:48
> To: radsafe
> Cc: radprot@mad.scientist.com
> Subject: Puskin article[Scanned]
>
>
>
> The following posted at the request of Don Miller.
> Mr. Miller is not a
> listmember, but he can be contacted directly at the
> email address shown at
> the end of the message.
>
>
> > -----------------------------------------------
> > After reading the Radsafe Archives, I was
> wondering if Dr.Cohen sent out
> either the $1,000.00 or $2,500 reward for this in
> response to this paper
> that more than meets the criteria (as can be found
> in the archives) for his
> reward?
> >
> > Health Phys 2003 Apr;84(4):526-32 ..
> >
> > Smoking as a confounder in ecologic correlations
> of cancer mortality rates
> with average county radon levels.
> >
> > Puskin JS.
> >
> > Office of Radiation and Indoor Air, U.S. EPA,
> Washington, DC 20460, USA.
> puskin.jerome@epa.gov
> >
> > Cohen has reported a negative correlation between
> lung cancer mortality
> and average radon levels by county. In this paper,
> the correlation of U.S.
> county mortality rates for various types of cancers
> during the period
> 1970-1994 with Cohen's radon measurements is
> examined. In general,
> quantitatively similar, strongly negative
> correlations are found for cancers
> strongly linked to cigarette smoking, weaker
> negative correlations are found
> for cancers moderately increased by smoking, whereas
> no such correlation is
> found for cancers not linked to smoking. The results
> indicate that the
> negative trend previously reported for lung cancer
> can be largely accounted
> for by a negative correlation between smoking and
> radon levels across
> counties. Hence, the observed ecological correlation
> provides no substantial
> evidence for a protective effect of low level radon
> exposure.
> >
> > Don Miller
> > radprot@mad.scientist.com
> >
>
>
>
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=====
-- John
John Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
e-mail: crispy_bird@yahoo.com
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