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RE: Puskin article[Scanned]



My question has always been, what is the correlation

between non-smokers, radon and lung cancer?  How good

are the statistics when only these three variables are

considered?  I would think that this goes to the heart

of the question by eliminating the issue of smoking

althogether.



--- Dr Christoph Hofmeyr <chofmeyr@nnr.co.za> wrote:

> Hi, all,

> About the Puskin paper: very interesting, but I

> decided against hasty comment.  Interested persons

> should read prof Cohen's detailed response on his

> website.

> 

> I found a more instructive presentation of Cohen's

> radon data if one orders the counties according to

> average radon level from 1 to 1600, i.e. plot

> against 'rank' from smallest to largest, rather than

> against radon level on a linear scale, as any

> dependence on high radon would stand out like a sore

> thumb (the average concentration doubles between

> rank 1400 and 1600). Lung cancer mortality shows a

> beautiful ~linear negative slope against 'rank' with

> no inflection where the county radon levels shoot up

> (between 1400 and 1600). Only where Cohen tried to

> deduce smoking prevalence from the lung cancer

> rates, does smoking show a clear negative dependence

> on radon rank.  Where he used other methods, any

> correlation seems absent or very weak negative. 

> Most other variables used by Cohen show no obvious

> correlation against radon 'rank'.  I was postulating

> that age might be a culprit due to the very strong

> age dependence of cancer.  However, this also drew a

> blank.  So the plot thickens!

> .  I conclude from the above plot that a doubling of

> the relevant radon levels between ~3 and 6 pCi/L

> (high end) most probably has a zero effect on lung

> cancer mortality.   This contradicts the linear

> regressions used by Cohen or Puskin in that

> concentration range, which are clearly dominated by

> the lower concentration range up to about 3 pCi/L.

> Interesting?  Own musings.

> 

> Chris Hofmeyr

> chofmeyr@nnr.co.za

>   

> 

> -----Original Message-----

> From: Michael G. Stabin

> [mailto:michael.g.stabin@vanderbilt.edu]

> Sent: 24 April 2003 12:48

> To: radsafe

> Cc: radprot@mad.scientist.com

> Subject: Puskin article[Scanned]

> 

> 

> 

> The following posted at the request of Don Miller.

> Mr. Miller is not a

> listmember, but he can be contacted directly at the

> email address shown at

> the end of the message.

> 

> 

> > -----------------------------------------------

> > After reading the Radsafe Archives, I was

> wondering if Dr.Cohen sent out

> either the $1,000.00 or $2,500 reward for this in

> response to this paper

> that more than meets the criteria (as can be found

> in the archives) for his

> reward?

> >

> > Health Phys 2003 Apr;84(4):526-32 ..

> >

> > Smoking as a confounder in ecologic correlations

> of cancer mortality rates

> with average county radon levels.

> >

> > Puskin JS.

> >

> > Office of Radiation and Indoor Air, U.S. EPA,

> Washington, DC 20460, USA.

> puskin.jerome@epa.gov

> >

> > Cohen has reported a negative correlation between

> lung cancer mortality

> and average radon levels by county. In this paper,

> the correlation of U.S.

> county mortality rates for various types of cancers

> during the period

> 1970-1994 with Cohen's radon measurements is

> examined. In general,

> quantitatively similar, strongly negative

> correlations are found for cancers

> strongly linked to cigarette smoking, weaker

> negative correlations are found

> for cancers moderately increased by smoking, whereas

> no such correlation is

> found for cancers not linked to smoking. The results

> indicate that the

> negative trend previously reported for lung cancer

> can be largely accounted

> for by a negative correlation between smoking and

> radon levels across

> counties. Hence, the observed ecological correlation

> provides no substantial

> evidence for a protective effect of low level radon

> exposure.

> >

> > Don Miller

> > radprot@mad.scientist.com

> >

> 

> 

>

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=====

-- John

John Jacobus, MS

Certified Health Physicist

e-mail:  crispy_bird@yahoo.com



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