RE: Bernie Cohen's Reward Offer

["Fritz A. Seiler" <faseiler@NMIA.COM>]

Hi All,



	First, I was not going to get involved in this thread,

but now it seems that things have gotten much too far away

from science into something .... well .... 

	So here I am again, on my "Scientific Method" soap box,

reminding everybody that scientific work is based on physical

laws, and physical laws connect some physical quantities to

some others in a NUMERICAL fashion. Everything else is mere 

hand waving and speculation, not science!  

	Joe Alvarez and I have written two papers on the subject

of radon/smoking health effects. In these papers we have 

demonstrated clearly that in a risk assessment valid for an

American sub-population you need Bernie's raw data (and that

means without corrections for smoking or the phase of the moon!)

and can make a prediction for an ensemble of people that are a

valid subset of the entire U.S. population (and that means that

one third of them smoke!).

	Making a prediction for people with radon exposures only

is not a useful exercise for a carcinogenic action that is largely

based on the synergistic interaction between an exposure to radon 

and exposure to smoking residues.  The main question here is: For

whom are we making the risk predictions?  Americans?  American non-

smokers? Average humans (with a smoking rate different than 1/3) or 

what other group of humans?

	It seems that the discussions are going around and around

and nobody seems to care enough to state explicitly just what we

are talking about.  My distinct impression is that when we look at

things from a scientific point of view and are using numerically 

supportable arguments Bernie can avoid going to the bank for a long

long time.

 

Papers:

Seiler, F.A., and J.L. Alvarez, "Is the 'Ecological Fallacy' a 

	Fallacy?" Hum. Ecol. Risk Assess., 6, 921-941, 2000.

Seiler, F.A., and J.L. Alvarez, "Confounding Factors and the Use

	of Epidemiological Data in Risk Assessment." Hum. Ecol.  Risk

	Assess. 8, 627-630 (2002).



Well, I feel better now!

     Best Greetings

	   Fritz





*****************************************************

"This is the hour when democracy must justify

itself by capacity  for effective decision, or risk

destruction or disintegration. Europe is dotted

with the ruins of right decisions taken too late."



"America's Responsibility in the Current Crisis"

 Manifesto of the "Christian Realists" May 1940

*******************************************************





**************************

Fritz A. Seiler, Ph.D.

Sigma Five Consulting

P.O. Box 1709

Los Lunas, NM 87031

Tel.:  505-866-5193

Fax:   505-866-5197

**************************





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