Re: Tooth fairy inspired law suit

["Michael G. Stabin" <michael.g.stabin@vanderbilt.edu>]

"John Jacobus" <crispy_bird@YAHOO.COM> wrote:



>I bet the highway death rates linked to Sr-90 is much higher.





John, I think you are right. I refer you to a finding I published some years

back. The dose models and even background dose equivalent rates need to be

updated, but the conclusions are the same, and support your reasonable

suggestion.



Traffic Fatality Dose/Response Model.



Michael G. Stabin, PhD, CHP.



In 1985, Voelz et al. (Voelz et al. 1985) published results of their 37 year

followup of Manhattan Project plutonium workers.  While some comfort is

afforded by the results regarding the incidence of neoplasms and other

diseases in this small population, I find it somewhat disturbing to note the

increased incidence of fatalities due to auto/pedestrian accidents (1

observed vs. 0.96 expected).  From the data, it appears that the increased

risk of such fatalaties is about 4% in the observed population. The authors

neglected to derive a dose-response model for these data, believing, quite

naively, that "None of the positive findings...can be attributed to the Pu

depositions."  In this enlightened age in which all reasonable people

recognize the clearly defined link between small amounts of radiation and

effects such as stillbirths, cancer, etc., it is difficult to understand why

the authors overlooked this obvious effect.



To derive a dose-response model, I will limit my discussion to dose the

bone, liver, and lungs, because these organs account for almost 100% of the

total transformations of Pu-239 in a class Y material (ICRP 1979).  From

Table 4 of Voelz et al., and from tables in ICRP 30, I estimate roughly a

collective committed dose of 37 person-Sv to the red marrow, 460 person-Sv

to the bone, 100 person-Sv to the liver, and 150 person-Sv to the lungs in

the exposed population.  This would result in a collective effective dose

equivalent of 43.4 Person-Sv.  Therefore, the excess increased risk of

radiation-induced traffic fatalities of this type should be on the order of

9.2E-4 per person-Sv.  Assuming a linear, non-threshold model, this would

indicate that 420 auto/pedestrian fatalities in the US each year may be

attributed to background radiation, based on a population of 230 million

people receiving an average of 2 mGy per year.  In addition, based on the

projections for power consumption in UNSCEAR 1982, we may expect 9.2

additional auto/pedestrian fatalities each year attributable to nuclear

power production in the year 2000.  I think that it is a clear and present

danger that we face here, and I feel that we should make every effort to

immediately halt nuclear power production, coal power production (because

the lung dose from this pathway is comparable to or higher than that from

nuclear power production), natural gas consumption (due to the Rn-222

component), and above all, we must find some way to completely eliminate the

populations's exposure to cosmic and terrestrial radiation.



References



ICRP 1979 - International Commission on Radiological Protection, 1979.

Limits for Intakes of Radionuclides by Workers.  ICRP Publication 30,

Oxford, Pergammon Press.



UNSCEAR 1982 - United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic

Radiation, 1982 Report to the General Assembly, 1982.  Ionizing Radiation:

Sources and Biological Effects, United Nations, New York.



Voelz 1985 - G. Voelz, R. Grier, and L. Hempelmann, 1985.  A 37-year medical

followup of Mannhattan Project Pu workers.  Health Physics, 48:249-260.







Michael G. Stabin, PhD, CHP

Assistant Professor of Radiology and Radiological Sciences

Department of Radiology and Radiological Sciences

Vanderbilt University

1161 21st Avenue South

Nashville, TN 37232-2675

Phone (615) 343-0068

Fax   (615) 322-3764

Pager (615) 835-5153

e-mail     michael.g.stabin@vanderbilt.edu

internet   www.doseinfo-radar.com





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