Re: TFP and correlations

[John Jacobus <crispy_bird@YAHOO.COM>]

I like the graphs.  They use 1900-1950 trend lines in

population and childhood deaths.  Of course, the

current rate of life expectancy and infant

survivability has been increasing for years.  Pick

your data and you get the results you want.  



What I think is interesting is that if you extend the

mortality rate per 1,000 trend line in the top graph,

by 2040, only 4 "natural" deaths per 1,000 will occur,

and 4 "excess" deaths will occur.  By 2100, the ratios

values will be 2 and 6 deaths per 1,000 people.  It is

a shame radiation is preventing immortality.





--- Bjorn Cedervall <bcradsafers@HOTMAIL.COM> wrote:

> Just saw the following:

> http://www.radiation.org/nuclink2_1.html

> See the graph indicating 19 million excess deaths

> over the past decades.

> 

> As such a large fraction of the U.S. population live

> in cities I wonder how 

> the

> TFP people take into account air pollution (air

> planes, cars, coal - oops 

> sorry

> the latter is about non nuclear radioactivity),

> infections, asthma, and 

> everything

> that roaches, rats or waste dumps (playing grounds

> for children) etc may 

> carry.

> Or look at cities like New Orleans with all the

> killings etc - many children 

> lose

> a father because of violence. What may does that

> cause indirectly?

> 

> What fraction of those people have a medical

> insurance? Modern medicine and

> what it may bring in terms of benefits must

> eventually approach its limits 

> and

> therefore death rates must eventually reach a

> bottom. What about

> population changes over time? When you get down to

> relatively low death

> rates extra deaths due to particular causes (like

> asthma or sickle cell

> anemia) may distort the statistics. Just how do they

> sort up the causes?

> (choking deaths from large rad particles?)

> 

> It looks like the research is fishing expeditions

> with statistics programs.

> Where is the analysis of the alternative complex

> explanations?

> 

> My personal reflections only,

> 

> Bjorn Cedervall    bcradsafers@hotmail.com

> 







=====

+++++++++++++++++++

"Eternal vigilance by the people is the price of liberty and . . . you must pay the price if you wish to secure the blessing."

Andrew Jackson



-- John

John Jacobus, MS

Certified Health Physicist

e-mail:  crispy_bird@yahoo.com



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