Re: Pathological Epidemiology (was "I spent 10 years in radiation data and emerged as the foremost expert ...")

["Howard Long" <hflong@pacbell.net>]

 Bill Gaffey introduced confidence intervals with the statement,

"The more certain you want to be, be less specific."

Scientists strive to be usefully specific, but politicians look at the

effect they want, then stretch confidence limits.



There are too many "scientists" now who use the political method to get

grants for research with predetermined goals. Linus Pauling  did this,

believing vitamin C in large dose (2000 mgm/d) lessened cancer risk. When

Arthur Robinson, cofounder of the Pauling institute, proved the opposite,

and that cancer was just 1/10 the frequency and growth rate when mice were

semi-starved, Pauling destoyed the vast evidence. The fascinating detail is

in Robinson's Access to Energy newsletter for Nov '03, Box 1250 Cave

Junction OR 97523 or www.OISM.org



Howard Long



----- Original Message ----- 

From: "Bradt, Clayton" <Clayton.Bradt@LABOR.STATE.NY.US>

To: "Radsafe-Digest (E-mail)" <radsafe-digest@list.vanderbilt.edu>;

<bcradsafers@HOTMAIL.COM>

Sent: Tuesday, January 06, 2004 7:28 AM

Subject: Pathological Epidemiology (was "I spent 10 years in radiation data

and emerged as the foremost expert ...")





> I was struck by Bjorn's comments:

>

> >I was actually searching for some crazy epidemiology. Sometimes it

> resembles

> >evolutionary theory:

> >1. Create variation (multipage questionnaires etc)

> >2. Assortment of the information (data, genes etc)

> >3. "Natural" selection of the fittest (a large fraction of the variation

is

>

> >lost in every new generation/study... and then there is publication bias

by

>

> >various media)

> >The fittest create the money base for the next study...

>

> >Remember Sir Karl R. Popper in 1962: "...assembled in accordance with the

> >collector's interests and points of views".

>

> >My personal initiative only,

>

> >Bjorn Cedervall   bcradsafers@hotmail.com

>

> In my former life as a grad student in psychology (Oh so long ago! I never

> practiced the craft.) I recall that this was how we were actually trained

to

> do statistical analysis!  Back then, the thinking was that if you couldn't

> get a correlation coefficient of at least 0.35 you just weren't trying:

> Correlation not strong enough? Just increase the variance (more data

points)

> until it is!  Nowadays Pearson's R isn't much used, but this would

> correspond to a relative risk of, what -  1.5 or so?

>

> It is not surprising to me that at least some of the more notorious

> purveyors of junk epidemiology seem to have started out in the social

> sciences.  They are trained to approach research more as providing a

support

> for their theory-making,  than as a Popperian test of their theories.

It's

> a lawyerly approach to evidence gathering.  Select the data to support

your

> case (theory) and ignore (or suppress) that which tends to contradict it.

>

> The problem with Psychology and the social science in general ( and one

> reason why I eventually got out of it) is that there are so many more

> theories than facts.  Bjorn's comparison to natural selection is very

> interesting, but Adam Smith needs to be paid his due as well:  The

selection

> of competing theories in the marketplace of ideas, is based on their

revenue

> generating power rather than their explanatory power.

>

> Clayton J. Bradt, CHP

> Principal Radiophysicist

> NYS Dept. of Labor

> Radiological Health Unit

> voice: (518) 457-1202

> fax:    (518) 485-7406

> e-mail: Clayton.Bradt@labor.state.ny.us

>

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