RE: Nuclear Power Des NOT Need Gobal Warming Hoax!

["Dukelow, James S Jr" <jim.dukelow@PNL.GOV>]

Gary Isenhower wrote:

-----Original Message-----

From: owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu

[mailto:owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu] On Behalf Of

garyi@trinityphysics.com

Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2004 7:24 AM

To: radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu

Subject: RE: Nuclear Power Des NOT Need Gobal Warming Hoax!





Jim,



Are you saying that climate models could give the same results without

using historical 

climate data?  If not, then I have to say that we do indeed "depend

heavily" on historical 

trends.



Also, your memory of historic electrical demands is from a completely

different time 

than the one Ruth described, so I don't think there is any justification

for claiming that 

your memory is better than hers.



-Gary Isenhower



=================



No.  I am saying what I said -- that historical data is used in the

building of general circulation models to determine the parameters

needed for the parts of the model that cannot be based on first

principles modeling.  The GCMs are not, in any sense, mere statistical

extrapolations of historical data.



My justification for claiming that the break in electrical demand came

in 1973-74, at the time of the Arab oil embargo is that those particular

facts are burned into my memory because they had so much impact on my

life from that point on.  Those not similarly afflicted can go to DOE's

Energy Information Administration web site <www.eia.doe.gov> and search

out Table 8.2a: Electricity Net Generation: Total (all sectors),

1949-2002.  That table is in a format that seems to defy importing into

MS Excel, but if you punch the total electricity demand numbers for 1960

to 2002 into a spreadsheet and derive the trend lines and annual growth

rates, you will find that the average annual growth from 1960 to 1973

was 6.67% (min 4.75 and max 8.62) and the average annual growth rate

from 1974 to 2002 was 2.51% (min -2.38% and max 8.76% and only two years

with a growth rate larger than the minimum rate for 1960-1973).



Simply put, Ruth was wrong about 1968 being the year of the break to

lower electricity demand growth -- it was 1974 and the primary cause was

the fuel price increases caused by the Arab Oil Embargo.



Best regards.



Jim Dukelow

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Richland, WA

jim.dukelow@pnl.gov



These comments are mine and have not been reviewed and/or approved by my

management or by the U.S. Department of Energy.

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