Re: Nuclear Power Des NOT Need Gobal Warming Hoax!

[RuthWeiner@AOL.COM]

In a message dated 6/1/04 6:20:06 PM Mountain Daylight Time, 

jim.dukelow@pnl.gov writes:



>   There are really only two sources of modeling

> assumptions: historical trends and the basic equations of physics and 

> chemistry.

> For global climate change predictions, we depend heavily on the first of 

> these.

> 



To Jim Dukelow:  could you please write the equations that predict global 

warming?  Sure, you can probably write a Hamiltonian operator for the IR 

absorption of CO2, and you can certainly calculate changes in temperature of the air 

from the specific heat of air and the heat input from IR radiation from CO2, 

but using that to predict global climate change invloves a lot of assumptions.  

Alternatively, could you please give me a reference that derives global 

climate change from basic physics equations and not from historical temperature 

records?  All the papers in SCIENCE that I have seen use the latter.



By the way, the dry adiabatic lapse rate can be derived from first 

principles, as can settling velocity in the Stokes region, as can boiling point 

elevation and freezing point depression, and a lot of other things.



> Examples of modeled predictions that proved incorrect:

> 

> (1) In the years immediately after WWII, electric energy use in the United

> States increased about 7% per year, and the increase was pretty much linear, 

> so

> utilities planned construction on that basis.  However, by 1968, the annual

> increase was a little less than 3%/year and has stayed there ever since.



The 3% per year was a paper in SCIENCE in 1978, and is a ten-year average of 

annual electrical consumption growth.  The 7% per year was quoted to me by the 

CEO of Public Service of Colorado in 1970, when I was on the first Colorado 

Environmental Commission.



> (2) Weather is predicted with about 65% accuracy on the average, in spite 

> of

> reams and reams of good data.



This number is from a lecture on expert elicitation by Lee Merkhofer, that i 

heard in 1997.





> (3) When I was a professor at WWU (1974-1993), we were consistently unable 

> to

> predict the size of the entering freshman class to better than +/- 25%, in 

> spite

> of the fact that Western had been a university since 1964.

> 

> Next time maybe I'll just give the references along with the assertions.  of 

course, none of this was "personal experience" except the last.



Ruth Weiner, Ph. D.

ruthweiner@aol.com