Re: Cohen's "discrepancy": More Radon - LESS lung cancer (Co Mortality)

[John Jacobus <crispy_bird@YAHOO.COM>]

I think it is important to remember that the p-value

tells you something about the statistics.  However, it

does not say anything about the original data, e.g.,

if confounding factors were taken into consideration. 

I guess this is why epidemiological studies should be

done by professionals who have studied the subject and

understand the pitfalls and problems that can arise.  



I, and I am sure others, have had statistics in

college.  But does not make me an epidemiologist.

 

--- howard long <hflong@pacbell.net> wrote:



> No, Steve,

> Cohen's data has far less p of chance, including

> smoking confounding, than case-control studies like

> Fields' (site selection and # problems) or miners'

> high exposure cancers  (extrapolation beyond the

> data).

>  

> Look again at Cohen's graphs of confidence limit

> bars, smoking or not.  Like 100 other confounders,

> smoking does not straighten the curve (non-linear). 

>  

> Linear risk is unnatural for any food, medicine or

> sunshine. LNT never existed except in theory. LNT

> was a hologram projected by lazy bureaucrats to

> simplify their dictates.   

>  

> Howard Long

> 

> Steve Miller <SMiller@nukeworker.com> wrote:

> 

> Please see previous Radsafe post by Mr. Howard -

> http://www.vanderbilt.edu/radsafe/0306/msg00282.html

> 

> The recent article in the Health Physics Journal

> puts to rest for me the validity of Dr. Cohen's

> assertions that he has shown the LNTT is invalid. I

> think a respectable end has arrived! Even a

> physicist on the committee agrees the inverse

> finding is smoking related. Dr. Cohen's rebuttal is

> not convincing. This issued has now been argued ad

> nauseum for the past 10 years. Can we find agreement

> it is now over?? 

> 

> RESIDENTIAL RADON EXPOSURE AND LUNG CANCER RISK:

> COMMENTARY ON COHEN'S COUNTY-BASED STUDY. 

> Health Physics. 87(6):647-655, December 2004.

> Heath, C W. Jr *; Bond, P D. +; Hoel, D G. ++;

> Meinhold, C B. +[S] 

> Abstract: 

> mdash;: The large United States county-based study (

> Cohen 1995, 2001) in which an inverse relationship

> has been suggested between residential low-dose

> radon levels and lung cancer mortality has been

> reviewed. While this study has been used to evaluate

> the validity of the linear nonthreshold theory, the

> grouped nature of its data limits the usefulness of

> this application. Our assessment of the study's

> approach, including a reanalysis of its data, also

> indicates that the likelihood of strong, undetected

> confounding effects by cigarette smoking, coupled

> with approximations of data values and uncertainties

> in accuracy of data sources regarding levels of

> radon exposure and intensity of smoking, compromises

> the study's analytic power. The most clear data for

> estimating lung cancer risk from low levels of radon

> exposure continue to rest with higher-dose studies

> of miner populations in which projections to zero

> dose are consistent with estimates arising from most

> case-control studies!

> !

> regarding residential exposure.

> 

> Steve Miller

> 

>

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=====

+++++++++++++++++++

"That government is the strongest of which every man feels himself a part."

Thomas Jefferson



-- John

John Jacobus, MS

Certified Health Physicist

e-mail:  crispy_bird@yahoo.com





		

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