Chernobyl fallout and Swedish cancer incidence

["Bjorn Cedervall" <bcradsafers@HOTMAIL.COM>]

I have now had a preliminary look at the causes of death in Sweden the 

period 1986-1996.

I may add some time before 1986 later to get the general trends better 

clarified.

The focus has been the seven counties (essentially parts Sweden north of 

Stockholm) relating to the recent alarm and massmedial fallout.



I have not been able to break down the statistics into parish level (I 

estimate that 39 % of the deaths in the parishes of the seven counties were 

included in the study (considered fallout areas) but doubt if it matters 

whether you use 100 % or 39 % for the trends). My preliminary conclusions 

are:



1. The average age at death for the seven counties increased the years 

1986-1996 by about 2.8 years - a higher trend increase than for Sweden as a 

whole.

A vulgar interpretation would be that the Chernobyl fallout increased the 

average lifetime of those in the affected areas - I would never use such an 

argument. The point is just that you can use this type of statistics as you 

like or to quote Karl Popper (1962): "Science is a collection of data which 

is to be assembled in accordance with the collector's interests and points 

of views".



2. By using 1986-87 as a reference (no extra "cancers" first two years) the 

negative slope for the remaining period becomes steeper for deaths from 

cardiovascular diseases. The year 1988 was higher than the general 

downtrend. Beginning with 1988 skews the slope by at least abround 9 % which 

therefore in turn can be expected to support an uptrend in cancer incidence 

(living longer and nit dying from cardiovascular disease means increased 

probability of getting cancer).



3. It seems possible to explain the extra cancer incidence (the "849 cases" 

that were forwarded to news media worldwide) by this age effect alone.



I any information comes up that makes these preliminary concludions invalid 

I intend to come back here on Radsafers.



I have not been able to adjust for shifts or differences in age pyramids, 

people moving to or from the counties etc.



My Friday evening interest and personal reflections only,



Bjorn Cedervall     bcradsafers@hotmail.com





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