Re: Chernobyl fallout and Swedish cancer incidence

[John Jacobus <crispy_bird@YAHOO.COM>]

That shift of 2.6 in 11 years is certainly an

interesting aspect.  Certainly small shifts in small

populations might appear to be more dramatic.  Of

course, a shift of 2.6 year many not really that be

dramatic, but our preception of it is.



--- Bjorn Cedervall <bcradsafers@HOTMAIL.COM> wrote:



> >However, the "increased average lifetime" could

> also

> be due to better nutrician or medical care of both.

> One trained, as in epidemiology, needs to look at

> confounding factors. See paragraph 1.

> ---

> 

> I think hypothetically that both these factors are

> relevant (lowered use of 

> salted foods may be involved). Then I could imagine

> that somewhat milder 

> winters (over decades - I would definitely die

> quickly up in that cold - 

> people like me up there would have migrations south

> ASAP as the primary 

> goal) may play a role, and in addition demographic

> shifts (in age pyramids) 

> may be due to migration effects - how would I know?

> Then all modern stuff 

> that makes life easier (nuclear powered laundry

> machines, better insulation, 

> and all that...). All of these may be relevant.

> Something else?

> 

> My personal comments only,

> 

> Bjorn Cedervall  bcradsafers@hotmail.com

> PS. I had, in my preliminary analysis, missed the

> most northern county in a 

> few calculations (there aren't many people living

> here) and therefore the 

> average age at time of death may be somewhat lower

> than I first wrote - 

> something like 2.6 years. Still quite an increase

> over 11 years I believe. 

> Hopefully I can refine the numbers later on with the

> help of some 

> professional epidemiology person (I am aware of

> quite a few names but many 

> of them seem to be focused on creating press

> releases which indicates that 

> they are not my types).

> 

> 

>

************************************************************************

> You are currently subscribed to the Radsafe mailing

> list. To

> unsubscribe, send an e-mail to

> Majordomo@list.vanderbilt.edu  Put the

> text "unsubscribe radsafe" (no quote marks) in the

> body of the e-mail,

> with no subject line. You can view the Radsafe

> archives at

> http://www.vanderbilt.edu/radsafe/

> 

> 





=====

+++++++++++++++++++

"Ancient Rome declined because it had a Senate; now what's going to happen to us with both a Senate and a House?"

Will Rogers 





-- John

John Jacobus, MS

Certified Health Physicist

e-mail:  crispy_bird@yahoo.com





		

__________________________________ 

Do you Yahoo!? 

Send holiday email and support a worthy cause. Do good. 

http://celebrity.mail.yahoo.com

************************************************************************

You are currently subscribed to the Radsafe mailing list. To

unsubscribe, send an e-mail to Majordomo@list.vanderbilt.edu  Put the

text "unsubscribe radsafe" (no quote marks) in the body of the e-mail,

with no subject line. You can view the Radsafe archives at

http://www.vanderbilt.edu/radsafe/