[ RadSafe ] Re: Nuclear Power Plant Effluents / EMP, "Nuclear War Survival Skills "

John Jacobus crispy_bird at yahoo.com
Mon Feb 28 23:18:42 CET 2005


What the TFP is doing is "cherry picking."  You
selectively pick pieces of data that support your
view.  Since cancer incidence follows statistical laws
or randomness, it is easy to find data that supports
what you want.  It is called clustering.
http://cis.nci.nih.gov/fact/3_58.htm

Once you have a cluster, you find a cause.  If it
real, you can evaluate the cause.  If it is
statistical in nature, pick a cause or reason based on
what you WANT to prove.  An increase of 30% may not
even be a statistical change, but you need to know
more about the data, e.g., how good was the sampling,
was there a biasing factor, etc.  

If you are interesting in why people believe it weird
things dispite evidence to the contrary, I would
recommend "Why People Believe Weird Things:
Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other Confusions of
Our Time" by Michael Shermer.  There are many smart
people who hold strange views, and because they are
intelligent, they present good arguements.

--- "Richard L. Hess" <lists at richardhess.com> wrote:

> Hi, John,
> 
> The two quotes were from good, solid, well-employed,
> college-educated 
> co-workers in a white-collar engineering office.
> Yes, they are probably 
> also nuts, but then most of my friends are nuts in
> one way or another <smile>.
> 
> I do stock duct tape and plastic sheeting, but not
> for the Tom Ridge 
> Memorial Purposes. Plastic sheeting is most useful
> during construction 
> (which I am involved with now, and taking great
> pains to protect the 
> electrical systems of the studio from lightning and
> other surges), and duct 
> tape has such a wide variety of uses, one can't live
> without it. I'm sure 
> that some of you would like to put it on my
> fingers...or mouth. <smile>
> 
> Actually, I always thought that the Tom Ridge
> Memorial Plastic Sheeting and 
> Duct Tape Scenario was part of the Minister of Fear
> campaign as so honestly 
> told by Mark Fiore.
> 
>
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/gate/archive/2004/07/14/fiorefear.DTL
> 
> I heard the recommendation and thought about it in
> the context of our home 
> in Glendale, CA, and said "this is silly." There are
> so many infiltration 
> paths, what good is this?
> 
> I am NOT worried about EMP. I want to learn more so
> that I may carry on an 
> informed discussion in my chosen field of media
> archiving with people who 
> are worried about EMP and digital archives. It's not
> practical to store or 
> manage petabytes of data using vacuum tube
> equipment. I retain very little 
> tube equipment.
> 
> A funny story about petabytes. About ten years ago,
> Sony introduced a 
> robotic data tape library that could hold over a
> petabyte. At their 
> original showing of it, the product was named the
> "Petafile." The next time 
> we saw it, the same product was called "Petasite." I
> think there was a 
> marketing guy looking for work.
> 
> RE: TFP, I understand the basic statistics. I wanted
> to try and really 
> understand their claim. The original post implied:
> "When Salem was shut 
> down there were X cases of cancer in the area over
> several years. When 
> Salem started up there were 1.3X cases of cancer
> over a similar time 
> frame." That's why I was asking questions--not
> because I was worried, but 
> I'm trying to understand the "science" behind the
> statement. (note the 
> "science" in quotes). Of course there are so many
> other confounding factors 
> and also the random probability of cancers occurring
> in any given 
> population over any given period of time could be
> the explanation for this. 
> I think someone said, "don't try and understand TFP
> data." Perhaps that's 
> the best advice yet.
> 
> My only problem with the TFP data it is that it is
> covered in the media as 
> if it were true and it just doesn't make any sense.
> Magic ions moving 
> through the ether undetected until they land in baby
> teeth.
> 
> I like understanding things. Understanding things
> leads to loss of fear. I 
> propose that if half the population took ten percent
> of the time that I've 
> taken with an open mind, this would be put to rest.
> 
> Another big area of confusion seems to be HAARP.
> People are confusing the 
> calculation fiction (or shorthand) of effective
> radiated power for actual 
> power. No, I am not worried about HAARP, but there
> are people who are. I've 
> read the scare books and find their numbers are off
> by a factor of 100 or so.
> 
> But I wish I understood more of what Tesla was
> thinking 70-odd years ago 
> for no reason other than it's an interesting enigma.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Richard
> 
> At 08:25 AM 2/28/2005, you wrote:
> >My wife and I are very stoic about these stories. 
> You
> >can prepare for the nuclear attack, the "dirty
> bomb,"
> >etc., or get hit by a bus.  We refuse to buy duct
> tape
> >and plastic sheeting for our windows.  We have a
> >radio, and will stay inside or evacuate if
> necessary.
> >We have a couple of days supplies in case we get
> >snowed in.
> >
> >Personally, I think some of the quotes you list are
> >from "nuts."  I refuse to live in fear of the
> >improbable.  Why are you worried about EMP?  Do you
> >think terrorist have nuclear weapons and
> >intercontinential missiles?  I am more concerned
> about
> >blackouts due to down powerlines.  EMP is different
> >from lightening due to the instantaneous peak.  If
> you
> >want to protect electronic equipment, use vacuum
> >tubes.
> >
> >
> >With regard to the TFP, study some basic
> statistics.
> >If you have small values for cancer, any increases
> >with seem dramatic.  They claim an increase of 30%.
> >Thirty percent of what?  Over what time frame?  Two
> >years, five years, twenty years?
> >
> >Worry about the real problems, like that bus.
> >
> >--- "Richard L. Hess" <lists at richardhess.com>
> wrote:
> >
> > > At 05:26 PM 2/27/2005, John Jacobus wrote:
> > > >Out of curiosity, what actions or
> recommendations
> > > have
> > > >you and family taken?  Have you built fallout
> > > >shelters, store water, built electroscopes,
> etc?
> > >
> > > Hello, John,
> > >
> > > I'm trying to make sense of this all. I keep
> hearing
> > > so much doom and gloom
> > > that I'm asking out of intellectual interest.
> > >
> > > I do have two CDV-700s and an Aware RM-70
> (IIRC).
> > > They are all G-M devices.
> > > I don't have electroscopes, etc. I have not
> built a
> > > fallout shelter, but, I
> > > have moved away from the LA Basin for other
> reasons
> > > to an area about 40
> > > miles north of downtown Toronto--my wife's
> hometown.
> > >
> > > In LA we used to store water and food, but don't
> do
> > > as much here. It was
> > > for earthquake protection, not nuclear
> incidents. We
> > > keep a little here in
> > > case we are blizzarded in.
> > >
> > > I want to be informed to make decisions for my
> > > family--that was the
> > > original intent of my joining the list. I had
> heard
> > > things around work like:
> > >
> > > --"my brother works for the spook agency and he
> > > wants me to outfit my cabin
> > > in the Sierras with a generator as a place to
> run
> > > to."
> > >
> > > --"I lived in Montana and I wouldn't drive the
> Snake
> > > River route without a
> > > Geiger Counter." (I did, and it showed
> background
> > > radiation peaking around
> > > 20µR/hr near some lava outcroppings and a bit
> more
> 
=== message truncated ===


=====
+++++++++++++++++++
"Baltimore is actually a very safe city if you are not involved in the drug trade."
DR. PETER BEILENSON, the city's health commissioner.

-- John
John Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
e-mail:  crispy_bird at yahoo.com


		
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