Radiation Risk Analogies - This message was sent as a cc: to radsafe acouple days ago. It came back today saying it did not get delivered.However, at least one person got it. Perhaps others did also. I didn't. SoI'm sending it out directly this time. I hope you find it worth the time toread. Thanks. John

[jrcamero@facstaff.wisc.edu (John Cameron)]

>
>To:"Mcelrath Susan S." <MCELRATHS@rscpo1.wilm.ge.com>
>From:jrcamero@facstaff.wisc.edu (John Cameron)
>Subject:Re: Risk Calculation Analogies
>Cc: radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu
>
>Dear Susan,
>         You wrote ">I am looking for new and interesting ways to explain how
>radiation risks are determined. I'm particularly interested in analogies which
>relate risk calculations to common, everday, ordinary items. I'm looking for
>more than  just relating radiation exposure risks to activities like driving a
>car, skydiving, etc. I'm looking for analogies to explain how risks are
>calculated (or, extrapolated) from exposure data."
>
>        My answer will be a  disappointment to you. There are no radiation
>risks worth mentioning for ordinary people at any exposures they will receive
>during their lifetimes..However, there is plenty to explain - read on.
>         (Background) I spent my entire career (since 1948) working with
>radiation in one form or another - six years in nuclear physics research,
>development and teaching and over 35 years in medical applications of
>radiation. In 1958 when I went into medical physics at the U. of Wis-Madison I
>thought the most important thing a physicist could do would be to reduce
>radiation doses in diagnostic radiology.(They needed reducing but much more
>important problems, such as QC were not yet visible to me then.) 
>        I used to believe that radiaton was dangerous. It is in big doses -
>say 1 Gy whole body in a short time. However, even then the risk is not huge.
>I'd take 1 Gy rather than go sky diving or hang-gliding. If 1 Gy is spread
>over decades then there is no evidence that it is harmful - it may even be
>beneficial for some people. . For example, radium dial painters with skeletal
>doses below 10 Gy of alphas (200 Sv equivalent dose or 24 Sv effective dose)
>had NO radiation induced cancer, such as osteogenic sarcoma or leukemia! (So
>much for leukemia being easy to induce with radiation.)  
>         The radium dial painters who didn't get radiaion induced cancer -
>98.7% of them - lived longer on the average than their age matched controls.
>So did many of the a-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. How many HPs
>know that the a-bomb survivors are living longer on the average, despite about
> 400 radiation induced cancer deaths, than unexposed Japanese? 
>        A good recent reference about health effects of radium is RADIUM IN
>HUMANS - A REVIEW OF US STUDIES by Bob Rowland published by Argonne Nat. Lab
>Feb. 1995 (dated Sept. 1994). A still valid reference is RADIUM IN MAN by
>Robley Evans Health Physics Nov. 1974 pages 497-510.  Another good reference
>is HEALTH EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL RADIATION  by Sohei Kondo, co-published in the
>US by Med. Phys Publ (MPP) of Madison, WI (800) 442-5778. Chap. 4 gives a lot
>of interesting data. If you want an elementary book suitable for science
>teachers in the primary and secondary schools read THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT
>RADIATION  by John Lenihan, also from MPP. It describes many of the wonderful
>uses of radiation in science, medicine and industry. It also discusses the
>biological effects of radiation.
>        A book for secondary schools and adults to be out in a few months is
>RADIATION IN EVERYDAY LANGUAGE  by Bjorn Wahlstrom. MPP hopes to have it out 
>this fall. I think it is excellent but then I'm prejudiced - I am the unpaid
>acquisition editor of MPP..Another radiation related book to be out in a
>couple months is "MY LIFE WITH RADIATION - HIROSHIMA PLUS 50 YEARS by Ralph
>Lapp who was in it from 1940. 
>        Susan, The bottom line to your question of radiation risks is that for
>doses below 10 cGy there are no risks and there  may be benefits. For exampe
>for the a-bomb survivors in this dose group had about 100 fewer cancers than
>the unexposed controls. We can't gurarantee that there isn't some person who
>is very sensitive to radiation  for some reason for whom a small dose could be
>fatal. There is no way to find out and it is pointless to look. There are
>always rare cases e.g., last year 8 US children died from polio vaccination.
>Since polio is "extinct" in the US, should we stop vaccinating? Probably not -
>polio could invade from a country where it is not extinct.
>        Basically the world has been given a bad case of radiophobia by
>scientists with good intentions (members of ICRP, NCRP, BEIR V, etc.) who keep
>pushing the linear, no-threshold hypothesis despite the huge amount of
>contradictory data.They also push ALARA even though there is no scientific
>evidence to support the idea at low doses.  They feel they are being prudent.
>What they are doing is scaring people and as a by-product wasting billions of
>$ that could better be used for education, health care, etc. Another less
>obvious by-product is the under utilization of nuclear power. 
>        . Following Chernobyl (1986) the IAEA estimates there were over
>100,000 additional abortions in Western Europe from women who feared  a
>deformed fetus. That is many more humans than died from radiation, including
>the victims of the atomic bombs - most of whom died from blast and heat. 
>(There is no evidence among the 90,000 children and grandchildren of Japanese
>a-bomb survivors of an increase in mutations.) 
>        I realize that HPs earn a living based on radiophobia. They will still
>have a job to do for many years but they should help educate the science
>teachers to give the kids the facts - radiaiton saves many lives and rarely,
>if ever, causes a death.  The deaths in Chernobyl were unfortunate but not the
>catastrophe of Bophal, which most people will not even remember - unless you
>are from India.. 
>        Our major health problems are still smoking, poor nutrition, too many
>people, too little electricity, too little medical care, too much drinking,
>driving, homicide, etc. Radiation doesn't make the list except in the minds of
>people who believe the "experts."  I am nearing the head of the "check-out 
>line" to leave this world (at age 73) but until then I hope to help educate
>the public that radiation is probably one of our greatest gifts from nature
>despite its evil side of nuclear weapons.
>        I have made several  video tape lectures about radiation, which I will
>provide at cost ($10 including shipping) to anyone who wants them - they even
>include some jokes.  I give talks to various groups from school children, to
>HPS chapters to university physics colloquia on the topic "Is radiation as
>dangerous as they say?" I appreciate receiving my travel expenses but I
>sometimes pay my own way. As a Scotsman I  accept honoraria. It helps me
>support the publication of books for the public about  radiation. If you are
>in Boston at the meeting in a week or two, look for me in the MPP  booth
>(1302-1304) radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu in the
>AAPM area, no purchase is necessary! 
>        I hope some of you who have read this far will join me in the
>radiation educationl arena. Thanks for reading this. Let me know if I can
>answer any other "tough questions."  Best wishes, John Cameron
>
>        
>        
>
>
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>
John Cameron, 2571 Porter Rd., P.O. Box 405, Lone Rock, WI 53556-0405
Phones: Voice: 608/583-2160; FAX 608/583-2269. NOTE:During the winter
months Von & I will be at our winter home near the U.of Florida at 2678 SW
14th Dr., Gainesville, FL 32608 - Phone not yet installed. My e-mail will
be forwarded.