Re: Risk Calculation Analogies

[loesch@viper.eh.doe.gov (Robert M. Loesch)]

The analogy I heard recently was:

        If the risk of death from jumping off a 100' cliff is 100%, then
        the risk from jumping off a 1' cliff is 1%.  Based upon this risk,
        one could assume that if 100 people jump off a 1' cliff, 1 person
        should be expected to die.

Bob Loesch

>>
>>I am looking for new and interesting ways to explain how radiation risks......
>.....
>
>>I've heard the analogy comparing effects of taking a hundred aspirin all at 
>>once, and from that data determining the expected effects of taking one 
>>aspirin a day for a hundred days (though this analogy is somewhat lacking). 
>> Any creative ideas out there?
>>
>>
>
>How about comparing it to crossing a busy road. ie finding out how many
>people cross a particular road each year and how many are hit by cars then
>calculating the risk of being hit by a car per road crossing.
>
>
>
>
>                        Alex Zapantis
>                        Radiation Safety Officer                               
>                        Queensland University of Technology          
>                        Health & Safety Section                             
>                        Locked Bag No.2
>                        Red Hill Qld 4059
>                        AUSTRALIA
>
>                        Ph     : 61 7 864 3566
>                        fax     : 61 7 864 3993
>                        email  : a.zapantis@qut.edu.au
>
>
>
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        * Robert M. Loesch         U.S. Department of Energy *
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The preceeding message was NOT reviewed by my employer and
therefore represents MY OPINION ONLY and does not in any way
represent the policies or opinions of the U.S. Department of Energy.