Re: Chernobyl Health Study Findings

[mgoldman@ucdavis.edu (Dr. Marvin Goldman)]

>>>Date: Thu, 28 Mar 96 11:55:57 -0600
>>>From: "RUSSELL, MIKE" <russelmj@songs.sce.com>
>>>....
>>>     SUBJECT:  Chernobyl Health Studies: The 16 research projects sponsored
>>>     by the European Commission, Prof. Albrecht Kellerer, professor of
>>>     radiation biology at the University of Munich.
>>>....
>>>     The WSJ article below reports the findings of a four year study
>>>     which found no increase in leukemia due to Chernobyl accident.
>>>
>>>     Does anyone know how I can obtain copies of these reports.  Thanks for
>>>     your help...mjr
>>> .....
>
>Mike, I don't know where you can find these reports, but if you do find out,
>please
>let me know.
>
>>>Scientists: Chernobyl Not the Health Hazard Many Think
>>>
>>>  MINSK, Belarus (Dow Jones)--Childhood thyroid cancers increased markedly in
>>>the area after the 1986 Chernobyl explosion, but there has not been the
>expected
>>>increase in leukemia and other diseases, European and former Soviet
>>>scientists
>>>announced Friday according to The Associated Press.
>>>......
>
>I recommend you cruise on by the Media Watch Ukraine homepage's Chornobyl
>information
>page [http://www.mwukr.ca/chlin.htm]. There's a section on Chornobyl
>information,
>including an excellent article by Dr. David Marples of the University of
>Alberta
>[http://www.mwukr.ca/marp.htm], who is an acknowledged expert on the topic of
>Chornobyl. Dr. Marple's article addresses some of the points you bring up.
>
>-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*
>Larisa Streeter
>    Corporate Environmental Scientist
>      Western Atlas International, Inc.
>        Houston, Texas
>          larisa@sam.neosoft.com
>
>*** My opinion only. Use at your own risk. No warranties real or ***
>*** implied. Void where prohibited by law. Your mileage may vary.***
>*** My boss has already disavowed all knowledge of my actions....***
Reply:
Also see the Economist, March 9,p. 91-2.  There will be a spate of reports
next week at the IAEA meeting on Chornobyl-10 years later---summarizing the
WHO, EC and IAEA studies.  But the bottom line is the 1000 childhood
thyroid cancer cases, (perhaps rising to a total of 5000 over the next
decade) and not much else.  The whole body doses were too small to cause a
significant leukemia increase, even in the survivors of acute radiation
sickness, [of the 150+ survivors,14 have died over the past decade, mainly
of other causes, but 2 did die of myeloproliferative syndrome (burned out
marrow)].  Most solid cancers need a 10 year latency period and it's too
soon to close the books, but based on the Hiroshima-Nagasaki data, we
should have really have seen the peak by now of leukemias, and so it may be
that there won't be any detectable excess.  That's what I got attending the
four recent conferences in St. Petersburg, Chornobyl and Minsk.  Stay
tuned!
Marvin Goldman