Chernobyl

["J. J. Rozental" <josrozen@netmedia.net.il>]

Mike Baker ... baker@groves.neep.wisc.edu

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Originator: riskanal@listserv.pnl.gov
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Date: Mon, 06 Jan 1997 16:45:10 -0800
From: DJeffrey@EMCONINC.COM (Jeffrey, David)
Subject: Chernobyl radionuclide risk reality chec

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..........
Incidentally, this data is for cesium-137 measured on 1/1/95, so even though 
the this isotope has a fairly short half-life (30 years), at these levels, 
if they're right, that's not much consolation. And if the data and my 
computations are correct....remind me to stay the heck away from the Ukraine 
and Belarussia, at least for the next several hundred cesium-137 halflifes!
========

According with the International Conference "One Decade After Chernobyl"
Summing up the consequences of the accident I can inform the following:

1) The areas  of the surrounding territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine
in which activity levels of Cs-137 in excess of 185 kBq/m2 were measure were
estimated at 16500 km2, 4600 km2  and 8100 km2  respectively;

2) For the period from 1996 to 2056, committed doses to the population
living in areas with a contamination density of 185 --555 kBq/m2  will
typically be of order of 5-20 mSv;

3 -- For the population living in areas with a contamination density of
555-1480 kBq/m2, doses over this period will be of the order of 20-50 mSv,
mainly for external exposure;

4 -- However, in localities where there are particularly high transfer
coefficients from soil into foodstuffs, the internal exposure alone to the
population could exceed 50 mSv over the 70 years;

5 -- Among the 7.1 million residents of 'contaminated' territories and
'strict control zones' the number of fatal cancers due to the accident is
calculated, using the predictive models to be of the order of 6600 over the
next 85 years, against a spontaneous number of 870,000 deaths due to cancer.

6 -- Extracted from INFCIRC/510 -- Summary of the Conference results

7 --   Nevertheless the picture very sad, specially in the incidence of
thyroid cancer among those persons, specially in children under 15 years,
and the tremendous psychological consequences and emotions among those
peoiple, I believe that you should review the logic of your final conclusion.
                                                     
"J. J. Rozental" <josrozen@netmedia.net.il>
Consultant, Radiation Safety & Regulation
for Developing Country