Re: Background radiation and cancer

["J. J. Rozental" <josrozen@netmedia.net.il>]

According with ICRP 60, 1990

For General Population:

The Risk Factors for Fatal Cancer is 5E(-4)/rem
The Risk for severe hereditary disorders (gonads) is 1E(-4)/rem
Total risk 6E(-4)/rem

J. J. Rozental <josrozen@netmedia.net.il>
Israel

=================
At 10:53 PM 2/26/98 -0600, you wrote:
>Paul Lavely wrote:
>> 
>> We have been involved in public meetings regarding radiation and cancer.
>> One group has stated that up to 15 percent of ALL human cancers are from
>> "background radiation" (their definition excludes ALL man-made sources -
>> including medical). Does anyone know the source for a quote such as this?
>> 
>> Thanks very much for your help.
>>_______________________________________________________________
>
>
>I generally use a figure of 0.0004 lifetime cancer risk per rem (from an
>NRC Reg. Guide
>
>which is based on BEIR V risk data). Assuming 0.3 rem/year background
>(excluding medical sources), a 75 year average lifetime, AND ASSUMING
>THE LINEAR NO THREASHOLD (LNT) MODEL, this gives a lifetime cancer risk
>from background radiation of ...
>
>
>
>	0.0004 x 0.3 x 75 = 0.9%
>
>
>
>This may be compared to California Cancer Registry data which gives ...
>
>
>
>	cancer mortality per lifetime = 11%
>
>	cancer morbidity (incidence) per lifetime = 27%
>
>
>
>I believe the 0.0004 per rem risk number from NRC is lifetime mortality
>risk, in which case one could compare 0.9% to 11% and conclude that,
>ASSUMING THE LNT MODEL, background radiation causes 8% of all cancer
>deaths.
>
>Although I havn't worked the numbers, this is presumeably the basis for
>the EPA assertions for radon induced lung cancer deaths.
>
>
>
>One last point.  Morgenstern, Hirsch and Stewart of "Rocketdyne Worker
>Health Study" fame would have us believe that low level radiation
>exposure is 6 to 8 times more "deadly" then previously thought from
>A-bomb survivor data (i.e. BEIR V).  Using this "profound new finding"
>plus the BEIR V and LNT results above, one must conclude that the cancer
>mortality risk from background radiation is actually ...
>
>	0.9% x (6 to 8) = 5.4% to 7.2%
>
>Thus, when compared to the 11% cancer lifetime mortality rate, one must
>conclude that background radiation is responsible for 50% to 65% of all
>cancers.  The anti-nukes are digging themselves into a hole with the
>illogicality of there own conclusions. Or maybe they really do believe
>that essentially all cancer is caused by background radiation??? At this
>rate they will be putting out of business all those epidemiologists and
>cancer researchers who are making their careers studying the other
>causes of cancer including genetics, environmental pollution, diet,
>lifestyle, aging, etc. etc.
>
>
>___________________________________________________________
>
>These are clearly my own views. 
>___________________________________________________________
>
>
>
>Phil Rutherford
>
>Manager, Radiation Safety
>
>Rocketdyne Propulsion & Power
>
>Boeing Space Systems
>
>6633 Canoga Ave
>
>P.O. Box 7922, MS T487
>
>Canoga Park, CA 91309-7922
>
>
>
>Tel:       (818) 586-6140
>
>Fax:       (818) 586-2190
>
>
>
>E-mail:     philip.d.rutherford@boeing.com  (work)
>
>            pdrutherford@earthlink.net      (home)
>
>            
>
>Web Sites:  http://home.earthlink.net/~pdrutherford/  (home)
>
>            http://www.boeing.com/space/rdyne/        (work)
>
>____________________________________________________________
>
>