Re: Leukemia in Astronauts

[Dov Brickner <brickner@mail.inter.net.il>]

At 10:26 23/07/98 -0500, you wrote:
>In a message dated 98-07-23 10:50:24 EDT, you write:
>
><< From:	mmckinno.ndep-lv@ndep.carson-city.nv.us (Mike McKinnon)
> Sender:	radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu
> Reply-to:	radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu
> To:	radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu (Multiple recipients of list)
> 
> Fellow Radsafers,
> 
> With the recent passing of Alan
> Shepard, one of the original seven
> astronauts, who died of Leukemia, one
> might wonder whether his increased
> exposure to cosmic radiation had any
> relevance.  Cause for discussion. >>
>
Sorry for responding so late, but following this thread (after beenig
abroad for a couple of weeks) made me furious. No, there is NO CAUSE for
disscussing this subject in this list!(but since it already started I will
add my remarks)
We already know that ionising radiation  cause cancer. We know that an
astronaut is exposed to cosmic radiation (but we arn't sure what was the
actual dose) and that an astronaut died suffering from leukemia. We are old
enough not to cme to the childish conclusion that radiation is the cause of
leukemia in this particular case. In fact , Probability of Causation models
(both NIH and BEIR V based models)relate leukemia to radiation exposure
best, only few years after the exposure. Ten years after the exposure the
probability of causation for keukemia is near the background. 
The validity of these models is another question, but I don't want to
exclude the possibility of any relation between the late Alan Shepard's
death and his radiation exposure history. I do mean to exclude the
possibility of a scientificly valid answer to that question. 
Alan Shepard should be remembered as a brave man who risked his life (as
many other astronauts did) and served his country and the whole human race
. No otherpseudoscientific remarks are needed here.
Dov (Dubi) Brickner    MD
Beer-Sheva  ISRAEL

brickner@mail.inter.net.il