Re: Risk/Probability Related Interactions with Public -

[RADPROJECT@aol.com]

Radsafers:

This morning's national news featured today's Powerball lottery drawing
[chance of a winning $1 bet over 80 million to 1]. People are standing in
lines across the US for up to 5 hours to place their bets. Many people are
buying 50 to 100 tickets and more for these incredibly long odds [albeit for a
chance to win $250 million].

A brief observation.

It seems the behavior of the public regarding low probability events like
winning a Powerball drawing highlights the challenge faced by risk
communicators trying to make an argument that some rare outcome [like
radiation induced health effects due to low level radiation exposure] confers
a risk of cancer mortality or some other effect of 1 in a million or less.
Simply quoting a low probability value for some effect which to an individual
who incurs the effect is indeed not trivial [like cancer mortality which to
the individual suffering the effect, would likely value at many millions of
dollars]  alone is likely to have little impact on the individual's attitude
toward risk acceptability.

I'm not suggesting the proper approach to dealing with public concerns about
radiation risk/phobia, but only trying to make the point that merely quoting
low odds for high value endpoints is not in itself likely to have much impact
on public attitudes.

Stewart Farber, MSPH
Public Health Sciences
19 Stuart St.
Pawtucket, RI 02860

Phone: (401) 727-4947   Fax: (401) 727-2032   E-mail: radproject@usa.net