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Re: NRC scraps commercial nuclear power terrorism program
At 05:24 PM 11/3/98 -0600, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>
>
>I believe the UN/IAEA and NEA publish deaths at: 31 people died in the
>course of the accident or soon after and another 137 were treated for the
>acute radiation syndrome. Anyone have better info?
>
>More on Chernobyl:
>http://www.physics.isu.edu/radinf/chern.htm
>
>
>--------------------------------------------------------------
>Bruce A. Busby
>H-babusby@aol.com
>---------------------------------------------------------------
Although its size and consequences were apparent early, the Chernobyl
accident in 1986 was characterized by communication gaps between the
population, political decision makers, journalists, and experts.
The resultant confusion caused people to lose confidence in messages they
received.
Immediately after the accident, a report by the World Health Organization
(WHO) gave
reasonable conclusions and recommendations, especially pointing out
differences in response measures that were taken by countries. Rather than
trying to reconcile these differences, too many scientists indulged in
speculation as to Chernobyl's potential effects. Consequently, the public
was left with predictions ranging from 10,000 to 500,000 fatal cancers,
numbers which the media in some cases wrongly reported as acute deaths.
The INSAG (INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR SAFETY ADVISORRY GROUP) report (IAEA Safety
Series - INSAG-1 examined the causes of the accident and presented the
preliminary Soviet
assessment of the amount of radioactive materials released from the damaged
reactor. It also contained a limited but significant early account of the
radiological consequences:
Of the on-site personnel, about 300 had to be hospitalized for
radiation injuries and burns.
135,000 people were evacuated: their collective dose from external
radiation was estimated to be 1.6x104 man-sievert (man Sv).
Doses to thyroids were estimated to be mostly below 300 mSv,
although some children may have received thyroid doses as high as 2500
mSv.
The long-term collective dose to the population was pessimistically
estimated at 2x106 man Sv with a realistic estimate at 2x105 man Sv.
May 1988: The Kiev Conference. Two years later, the international scientific
community had the second opportunity to review the radiological consequences
during the International Scientific Conference on the Medical Aspects of
the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant held by the Soviet
authorities in co-operation with the IAEA in Kiev in May 1988. (An unedited
version of the Conference proceedings was issued by the IAEA as an unpriced
publication and a report summarizing the information also was published.
Information presented at the Conference covered various topics:
The actual number of clinically diagnosed radiation injuries was precisely
reported: 238 occupationally exposed persons had declared signs of
radiation
syndromal sickness (eventually a lower number was positively diagnosed); of
these 28 had died. Two other people were killed by the reactor
explosion (another died of coronary thrombosis).
The collective dose commitment inside the former USSR was estimated at
226,000 man-Sv of which 30% was committed in the first year, with whole
body
doses up to 50 mSv in the first year.
Doses to the thyroids were confirmed to be up to 2500 mSv.
December 1988: Global Assessment by the United Nations Scientific Committee on
the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). UNSCEAR did a thorough assessment of
the impact outside the USSR. In its 1988 report to the UN General Assembly,
UNSCEAR
estimated that:
The highest national average first-year dose was 0.7 mSv (or one third
of the
global average natural background exposure).
The highest regional average total dose commitment was 1.2 mSv (or 1/30
of the
average lifetime dose from natural sources).
The total global impact of the Chernobyl accident was 600,000 man Sv,
equivalent on average to 21 additional days of world exposure to natural
background radiation.
May 1989: The IAEA "Ad Hoc
Meeting". Three years after the accident, scientists obtained a more
comprehensive insight into the magnitude of the accident's consequences
Contamination maps of the affected territories, open to international
scrutiny,
showed 10,000 km2 of territories with radioactive contamination in
excess of
5.5x105 Bq/m2 (15Ci/km2).
786 settlements with 272,800 people were in "areas of strict control"
where - up to January 1990 - a collective dose of 13,900 man Sv was
expected to be
incurred, with a few members of the public being expected to exceed 170
mSv.
The international community was advised of the intervention criterion for
countermeasures and protective actions established by the Soviet
authorities,
which would eventually become very controversial: 350 mSv of lifetime
dose.
As a result, the International Chernobyl Project (ICP) was launched in early
1990 It focused on four key issues of concern to the population and policy
makers: the extent of the existing contamination in the inhabited areas; the
projected radiation exposure of the population; the current and potential
health effects; and the adequacy of measures being taken at the time of the
Project to protect the public. Conclusions and recommendations were approved
by the ICP International Advisory Committee on 22 March 1991 and presented
for scrutiny to an international conference in Vienna 21-24 May 1991. They
were published by the IAEA and can be summarized as follows:
The whole body radiation doses to be incurred over a lifetime were
estimated to
be below 160 mSv or two to three times lower than originally thought;
however,
it was impossible to corroborate the level of thyroid doses actually
incurred.
The Final figure from the International Conference One Decade after
Chernobyl, April 1996 can be summarized as follows:
a) The 200,000 persons who participated in 1986-1987 in the "liquidation" of
the consequenses of the accident received average doses of order of 100
mSv, around 10% of them received doses of the order of 250 mSv; a few per
cent received doses greater than 500 mSv;
b) The 116,000 people who were evacuated from the exclusion zone in 1986 had
already been exposed to radiation. Fewer had received doses of more than 50
mSv and fewer than 5% received dose of more than 100 mSv
c)Among the 7.1 million residents of contaminated and strict control zones,
the number of fatal cancers due to the accident is calculated to be of the
order of 6,600 over the next 85 years, against a spontaneous number of
870,000 deaths due to cancer
d) The long term doses to the populations in various countries of the
northern hemisphere as a result of the accident, were as follow:
the highest national average first year dose was 0.8 mSv;
the highest European regional average commited dose over the 70 years to
2056 was estimated to be 1.2 mSv. In the International Chernobyl Project, it
was estimated that the highest commited doses for the 70 years from 1986 to
2056 for people living in the most contaminated territories were of the
order of 160 mSv.
e) For the period 1996 to 2056, commited doses to the population living in
areas with a contamination density of 185 - 555 kBq/m2 will typically be of
the order of 5-20 mSv; for the population living in areas with contamination
density of 555 -1480 kBq/m2, doses over this period will be of order of
20-50 mSv, mainly from external exposure. However, in localities where there
are particularly high transfer coefficients from soil into foodstuffs, the
internal exposure alone to the populations could exceed 50 mSv over the 70
years
josrozen@netmedia.net.il
Israel
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