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Epidemiology and Nuclear Power Plants
Amanda and RADSAFERs,
There is little *quality* epidemiology regarding populations around nuclear
power plants. One well-done study was published by Jablon et al. (1990), with
follow-up articles in JAMA. They found essentially nothing, on the whole. The
problem is that these studies are of the ecological design, making control for
confounders impossible. For example, one of the plants with a standardized
mortality ratio (SMR) greater than 1, namely Beaver Valley, is located in an
area of heavy chemical industry, including a plant a few miles away that
released, as I recall, 115,000 pounds of butadiene (an ACGIH Category A2
carcinogen) to the atmosphere in 1990. Inference of causation, if any, is
pretty tough in a situation like this where chemical exposures are not reported
along with proximity to the nuclear power plant.
Ecological studies assume that geographic proximity means higher dose, an
assumption that may be true for some but not for others. Also, for nuclear
power plants, they ignore the well-established latent period between exposure
and disease for cancer.
In my humble opinion, this stuff is virtually worthless, but it's the best we've
got on this topic. This kind of research does not meet the criteria cited in
the London Principles (Federal Focus 1996) for use of epidemiology studies in
risk assessment (now posted at Rob Stewart's site,
http://www.pnl.gov/berc/epub/risk/epidprin.html ).
There are other studies by crackpot groups who draw their conclusions first and
then try to find data to support them. This is particularly true for the cancer
cluster phenomenon (see Gawande 1999 for an excellent debunking of the
cancer-cluster phenomenon).
References
Federal Focus Inc. Principles for Evaluating Epidemiologic Data in Regulatory
Risk Assessment. Developed by an Expert Panel at a Conference in London,
England, October 1995. Washington, DC: Federal Focus, Inc.; 1996.
Gawande,A. The Cancer-Cluster Myth. The New Yorker LXXIV(45):34-37; 1999.
Jablon,S.; Hrubec,Z.; Boice,J.D., Jr.; Stone,B.J. Cancer in Populations Living
Near Nuclear Facilities. NIH Pub. No. 90-874. Washington, DC: National
Institutes of Health; 1990.
Jablon,S.; Boice,J.D., Jr.; Hrubec,Z. Cancer in Populations Living Near Nuclear
Facilities: A Survey of Mortality Nationwide and Incidence in Two States.
Journal of the American Medical Association 265(11):1403-1408; 1991.
Howe,G.R. Risk of Cancer Mortality in Populations Living Near Nuclear
Facilities. Journal of the American Medical Association 265(11):1438-1439;
1991.
- Dan Strom
The opinions expressed above, if any, are mine alone and have not been reviewed
or approved by Battelle, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, or the U.S.
Department of Energy.
Daniel J. Strom, Ph.D., CHP
Risk Analysis & Health Protection Group, Environmental Technology Division,
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Mail Stop K3-56, PO BOX 999, Richland, Washington 99352-0999 USA
Telephone (509) 375-2626 FAX (509) 375-2019 mailto:daniel.j.strom@pnl.gov
Brief Resume: http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian/strom/strombio.htm
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