RE: Epidemiologist and Nuclear Power Plants

["Roy C. Craft,CHP" <rcraft@wcnet.net>]

In addition to a lack of *quality* epidemiological studies, about 30 years
ago, we had a study made around a specific DOE plant.  It showed a strong
correlation to the death rate vs.. the distance from the center of the
plant.  The epidemiologist then showed that ALL of the data was from the
period of time BEFORE the plant was ANNOUNCED, not even built.  He showed
many such pockets.  One of the strongest correlations was the lower the
number of physicians in an area (per population) the lower the death rate.

IF I stand with one foot on a block of ice, and another on a hot stove, on
the average, I'm comfortable.

Roy C. Craft, CHP
rcraft@wcnet.net

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu
[mailto:radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu]On Behalf Of Strom, Daniel J
Sent: Wednesday, November 17, 1999 12:00 PM
To: Multiple recipients of list
Subject: Epidemiology and Nuclear Power Plants


Amanda and RADSAFERs,

There is little *quality* epidemiology regarding populations around nuclear
power plants.  One well-done study was published by Jablon et al. (1990),
with
follow-up articles in JAMA.  They found essentially nothing, on the whole.
The
problem is that these studies are of the ecological design, making control
for
confounders impossible.  For example, one of the plants with a standardized
mortality ratio (SMR) greater than 1, namely Beaver Valley, is located in an
area of heavy chemical industry, including a plant a few miles away that
released, as I recall, 115,000 pounds of butadiene (an ACGIH Category A2
carcinogen) to the atmosphere in 1990.  Inference of causation, if any, is
pretty tough in a situation like this where chemical exposures are not
reported
along with proximity to the nuclear power plant.

Ecological studies assume that geographic proximity means higher dose, an
assumption that may be true for some but not for others.  Also, for nuclear
power plants, they ignore the well-established latent period between
exposure
and disease for cancer.

In my humble opinion, this stuff is virtually worthless, but it's the best
we've
got on this topic.  This kind of research does not meet the criteria cited
in
the London Principles (Federal Focus 1996) for use of epidemiology studies
in
risk assessment (now posted at Rob Stewart's site,
http://www.pnl.gov/berc/epub/risk/epidprin.html ).

There are other studies by crackpot groups who draw their conclusions first
and
then try to find data to support them.  This is particularly true for the
cancer
cluster phenomenon (see Gawande 1999 for an excellent debunking of the
cancer-cluster phenomenon).

References

Federal Focus Inc.  Principles for Evaluating Epidemiologic Data in
Regulatory
Risk Assessment.  Developed by an Expert Panel at a Conference in London,
England, October 1995. Washington, DC: Federal Focus, Inc.; 1996.

Gawande,A.  The Cancer-Cluster Myth.  The New Yorker  LXXIV(45):34-37; 1999.

Jablon,S.; Hrubec,Z.; Boice,J.D., Jr.; Stone,B.J.  Cancer in Populations
Living
Near Nuclear Facilities. NIH Pub. No. 90-874.  Washington, DC: National
Institutes of Health;  1990.

Jablon,S.; Boice,J.D., Jr.; Hrubec,Z.  Cancer in Populations Living Near
Nuclear
Facilities: A Survey of Mortality Nationwide and Incidence in Two States.
Journal of the American Medical Association  265(11):1403-1408; 1991.

Howe,G.R.  Risk of Cancer Mortality in Populations Living Near Nuclear
Facilities.  Journal of the American Medical Association  265(11):1438-1439;
1991.

- Dan Strom

The opinions expressed above, if any, are mine alone and have not been
reviewed
or approved by Battelle, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, or the
U.S.
Department of Energy.

Daniel J. Strom, Ph.D., CHP
Risk Analysis & Health Protection Group, Environmental Technology Division,
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Mail Stop K3-56, PO BOX 999, Richland, Washington 99352-0999 USA
Telephone (509) 375-2626 FAX (509) 375-2019 mailto:daniel.j.strom@pnl.gov
Brief Resume: http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian/strom/strombio.htm
Pagemaster for  http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian   http://qecc.pnl.gov
http://bidug.pnl.gov

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