U.S. Utilities Believe Y2K Victory Near

["Sandy Perle" <sandyfl@earthlink.net>]

Saturday November 20 4:49 AM ET 

U.S. Utilities Believe Y2K Victory Near  

SAN DIEGO (Reuters) - Never mind that a new TV movie prophecies 
mayhem and near nuclear meltdowns, or that a cheeky Toyota commercial 
has the lights going out in New York City, or that all kinds of weird 
things happen every time the residents of planet Earth celebrate a 
new millennium.  

U.S. electric utilities say they have Y2K on the ropes and wish 
people would stop worrying.  

Aside from a terrorist attack on an electric grid or a massive case 
of overconfidence, nothing can go wrong, industry experts say, while 
keeping their fingers crossed just in case.  

``Let's say we're the Yankees and it's the top of the 9th and it's 12 
to 1, but we can't yell victory yet (because the game is not over),'' 
said Gerry Cauley, Y2K program coordinator for the North American 
Electric Reliability Council.  

Cauley, referring to the New York team's four-game World Series sweep 
of the Atlanta Braves that made winning look easy, commented at a 
recent council workshop here on final preparations for the Y2K 
transition. Participants said the level of concern was clearly lower 
than a year ago.  

``Most of us feel it will be a nonevent but we need to be prepared,'' 
said Bonnie Woodson, who is coordinating the Year 2000, or Y2K, 
efforts of Anaheim Public Utilities, whose customers include 
entertainment theme park Disneyland.  

Governments and industries have allocated billions of dollars to try 
to make sure computer systems do not crash if systems misread the 
date 2000. Many systems are programmed to read only the last two 
digits of the year and could mistake 2000 for 1900, possibly causing 
widespread malfunctions.  

But some experts believe that while the industry has made tremendous 
progress in dealing with the issue over the last 12 months, there are 
dangerous signs of overconfidence.  

Beware Of Overconfidence  

``I'm starting to feel that there is a sense of complacency on the 
electric industry's part that they have this thing licked and that it 
is going to be a total nonevent. I think that is a very shortsighted 
view,'' said Rick Cowles, president of CSAmerica, a New Jersey-based 
technology consulting firm for the power industry.  

Cowles said he did not expect a ``big bang'' on Jan. 1, 2000, but 
rather a period of perhaps two to four weeks when errors accumulate 
in data processing and control systems. ``If you don't start dealing 
with those errors during the period when they are accumulating, you 
are going to see some major crashes, but that is not unique to the 
electric utility industry.''  

He added that he expected some nuisance failures and a decline in the 
reliability of utility delivery systems next year. ``I don't think we 
are going to see anything that is catastrophic, that meets the end-of-
the-world predictions of some of the stronger Y2K pundits,'' Cowles 
said.  

Possible cyber or physical attacks by extremist groups are a concern 
and utilities will increase security amid fears some groups may 
strike on Jan. 1 for religious or other reasons.  

``The electric utility industry is Y2K ready. It is not an 
engineering problem any more, it is a people problem,'' said John 
Castagna, a spokesman for the Edison Electric Institute, which 
represents U.S. investor-owned utilities.  

Threats To Computer And Physical Security  

A security adviser at a major Midwestern utility warned that possible 
threats to the grid could come from groups such as White Supremacists 
seeking to launch a race war or others seeking to profit financially 
from grid problems.  

``You have a whole gamut of people who pose a threat to the grid for 
a variety of reasons, from financial to political,'' said the 
security expert, who asked not to be identified. He said there were 
recent attempts to break into his company's computer systems, 
including a four-minute attack from a Korean University in which 
virtually all the company's ports were scanned as hackers searched 
for a back door into the system.  

``We have attempts from all over the world every day,'' he said, 
adding that some utilities plan to sever links on the Internet for a 
few hours on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day while many others are 
likely to remain connected but watchful.  

``There is some thought that with the increased vigilance someone who 
wants to do mischief may just wait,'' he said.  

Some utilities are concerned that an NBC movie due to air Nov. 21 
called ``Y2K'' could inspire trouble because it depicts nuclear power 
plants problems and widespread chaos. ``I expect I will get a lot of 
calls the following day,'' one Y2K coordinator for an Eastern utility 
said.  

The Edison institute recently asked NBC affiliates around the country 
to consider alternative programming. ``We are concerned that the NBC 
film, while clearly intended as entertainment and not news, may 
unnecessarily cause Americans to have unjustified fears about U.S. 
preparedness for the conversion to the year 2000,'' an EEI letter 
said.  

EEI has also complained to Toyota about its commercial but has so far 
received no response.  

Others believe few will take the movie seriously.  

``From some of the previews ... it is so crazy, so ridiculous. Anyone 
who has got a couple of brain cells to rub together is going to be 
able to see that it is obviously a stretch of the imagination,'' 
Cauley of NERC said.  

There is a possibility some problems may be caused if there is 
extremely low demand for electricity, which could lead to some power 
lines being shut down. ``It is a concern and one of the  
most real in terms of basis in fact,'' Cauley said. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sandy Perle					Tel:(714) 545-0100 / (800) 548-5100   				    	
Director, Technical				Extension 2306 				     	
ICN Worldwide Dosimetry Division		Fax:(714) 668-3149 	                   		    
ICN Biomedicals, Inc.				E-Mail: sandyfl@earthlink.net 				                           
ICN Plaza, 3300 Hyland Avenue  		E-Mail: sperle@icnpharm.com          	          
Costa Mesa, CA 92626

Personal Website:  http://www.geocities.com/scperle
ICN Worldwide Dosimetry Website: http://www.dosimetry.com

************************************************************************
The RADSAFE Frequently Asked Questions list, archives and subscription
information can be accessed at http://www.ehs.uiuc.edu/~rad/radsafe.html