[ RadSafe ] OT: Global Warming

[KARAM, PHILIP]

I know there's data for a short period of time. But even 30 years' worth of data isn't going to answer questions that play out over centuries or millennia or longer.

At the moment the Earth appears to be warming - which it has been doing more or less for about 10,000 years since the last glacial retreat - but the last couple of million years have been abnormally cold from the viewpoint of the history of the earth. So if the Earth is warmer (or colder) this year than it was last year can we make any claims about what that means for a century or two from now? For that matter, if the last decade - or two or three decades - has been warmer (or colder) than the previous ones can we make any predictions about long-term climate change? Not really, because we're not sure if we're stuck in a random (and expected) fluctuation in climate or if it portends a longer-term trend.  Thirty years of data - no matter how high-quality - simply isn't enough to make any firm predictions.

As one example - the Little Ice Age last a few centuries. Were that to happen today we'd be desperately pumping CO2 into the atmosphere to try to prevent glaciers from bulldozing New York and Chicago. But it turned out to be a temporary fluctuation in earth's temperature. Similarly, the Medieval Warm Period lasted for over 300 years - we'd have called this a period of global warming - ironically ending with the Little Ice Age. Again - 30 years of the highest-quality data during either of these periods would have given us a completely misleading view of the climate. And thirty years of high-quality data today cannot tell us if we are inside of a temporary fluctuation (like either of these two periods) or experiencing a long-term (millennia or longer) trend in temperature.


P. Andrew Karam, PhD, CHP
NYPD Counterterrorism
One Police Plaza, Room 1109
New York, NY 10038
(718) 615-7055 (desk)
(646) 879-5268 (mobile)


-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of JPreisig at aol.com
Sent: Monday, May 19, 2014 2:39 PM
To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] OT: Global Warming

Radsafe,
 
      High quality data in Earth Rotation/wobble  and Atmospheric Angular Momentum exist since 1984.  See Goddard Space  Flight Center's VLBI Website.  
Earth thermal data, maybe   also????  Plot the data and do data fitting and 
see the results.  No  need to Cherry pick, Karam.
 
     Joe Preisig.
 
 
 
 
In a message dated 5/19/2014 10:46:54 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time, PHILIP.KARAM at nypd.org writes:

The  problem is that we can't look at ANY data from just a few years - even from an  entire decade - and make definitive statements about what's going to happen  over the next century or longer. And we can't really cherry-pick only those  data that support what we think (or would like) to be true. If this trend  continues for the next 10-20 years then I'd be willing to believe it's more  than just a slight fluctuation. 

Andy


-----Original  Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu  
[mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of  JPreisig at aol.com
Sent: Sunday, May 11, 2014 2:34 PM
To:  radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
Subject: [ RadSafe ] OT: Global  Warming

Hey All,

KISS (Keep It Simple  S....).

Last year the ice volume at one of the  Earth poles  started to become more 
icy.


When the Earth poles resolidify, less water is  available for the Earth  
mid-latitudes and droughts occur.

And when the ice  caps melt (1998???), water is  available in the 
mid-latitudes and  droughts occur less.


Joe  Preisig


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