Re: [Fwd: [DOEWatch] Deadly toll of Chernobyl]

[Franz Schoenhofer <schoenho@via.at>]

At 09:18 24.04.2000 -0500, you wrote:
>
>On Sat, 22 Apr 2000, Norman & Karen Cohen wrote:
>
>> 
>> Can I have some comments from you all as to whether you think the 15,000
>> killed number
>> is reasonable or not, and how some of you can defend the much lower
>> numbers I've seen in your postings.
>
>> Peace
>> Norm Cohen
>> Coordinator, UNPLUG Salem Campaign
>
>	--The 15,000 deaths depend on assuming the linear-no threshold
>theory of radiation induced cancer -- that is, if 1000 units of radiation
>dose  give a cancer risk X, 1 unit of radiation dose gives a cancer risk
>X/1000. There is now very abundant evidence that this theory is wrong, 

---------------

I respectfully disagree. These numbers do not originate from LNT, but are
political numbers. They have no scientific background and when looking at
different mass media reports you can find any numbers you can imagine - I
have read during the last days numbers up to 15 million individuals
suffering alone in the "vicinity" of Chernobyl, ten-fold cancer incidence
increase etc. I refer to the IAEA conference "10 years after Chernobyl",
which has given in my opinion first class scientific and reasonable
information on the health situation in the affected areas of the former
Sovjetunion. I find the now distributed numbers disgusting and their
citation in the mass media ridiculous. It is just the normal way of
exaggerating in order to rise the sale of papers and the number of TV
watchers. Therefore I am not going to cite them here, it would be waste of
time. Some groups complain that the "liquidators" have not been
incorporated into data bases, their received doses have not been recorded
and that they have never been checked for their health after their work. I
found messages in newspapers and magazines, that many liquidators hide the
fact that they had been at Chernobyl, because they are afraid that they
would face social discrimination. Now we find accurate numbers of how many
have died!!! Earlier numbers distributed years ago were exactly the numbers
of persons who would die per year in a normal population. 

Dear RADSAFErs, stay cool. Take these messages for what they are:
preparations for the anniversary of the Chernobyl accident, for slowly
intensified messages from the "battlefield" to culminate on April 26.
According to the messages on Austrian mass media, these numbers originate
from the Ukrainian authorities (how can I be sure??) and from some
"Chernobyl groups". The Ukrainian government needs desperately money to
shut down the last Chernobyl reactor(s), to maintain electricity supply,
not to talk about the common problems of the Ukrainian and the Bjelorussian
republics. All these groups (and states) urging so much the shutdown of
nuclear power plants have to my knowledge not contributed enough money to
enable it. 

I have often enough stated and I will state it once more: Nuclear energy
(and Chernobyl) and radiation protection are to the very least percentage a
matter of science. These items are governed by economics, by politics and
the mass media, which create what is commonly called "public opinion".
Therefore I am very surprised to find a statement of such a prominent and
by me and others highly esteemed person like Bernard Cohen, which "only"
refers to LNT. I assure you, that the numbers distributed have nothing to
do with LNT and with scientific considerations.

Best regards,

Franz




Franz Schoenhofer
Habicherg. 31/7
A-1160 Vienna
Austria
Tel.: +43-1-495 53 08
Fax.: same number
mobile phone: +43-664-338 0 333
e-mail: schoenho@via.at


Office:
Hofrat Dr. Franz Schoenhofer
Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management
Radiation Protection Department (BMLUW I/8 U)
Radetzkystr. 2
A-1031 Vienna
AUSTRIA

phone: -43-1-71172-4458
fax: -43-1-7122331

************************************************************************
The RADSAFE Frequently Asked Questions list, archives and subscription
information can be accessed at http://www.ehs.uiuc.edu/~rad/radsafe.html